🤖 Champions League: Atalanta over Inter and Juve, Napoli out? 🤯 | OneFootball

The picture is almost complete, but everything can still be turned upside down. With 90 minutes left in the initial phase of the Champions League, it’s time to start doing the math.

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As things stand, Serie A wouldn’t have a single team among the top 8 and, therefore, to hope to reach the round of 16, it would have to go through the playoffs.

Last night, Atalanta at one point—thanks to the results coming in—found themselves in 3rd place, only to then concede three goals to Athletic and slip down to 13th. As it happens, three of our four teams are all clustered together: after the Dea, one spot below is Inter, while Juve sits in 15th. Napoli is far behind and at risk of elimination.

But what are the chances of making it into the elite? And what are the odds of ending up in the playoffs? The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations and outlined the overall picture.

🏅 Who goes to the round of 16?

According to Opta, Arsenal will win the group. No surprises here, especially after the victory at San Siro that allowed the Gunners to maintain a 3-point lead over Bayern Munich in second place.

No good news for Serie A, as not even Atalanta has great chances of finishing among the top 8. The simulations, in fact, give Palladino’s team just a 13.42% chance of qualifying directly, which is still more than Juventus (6.75%) and Inter (6.31%).

The list of the eight qualified teams, then, consists of Arsenal and Bayern already through, followed by Liverpool, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Tottenham, Manchester City, and Atletico Madrid.

⚔️ Playoffs, Napoli at risk!

Now we come to the positions that matter for the Italian teams. Atalanta, Juve, and Inter are expected to finish between 9th and 16th place, which would guarantee them the chance to play the second leg of the playoff at home.

It’s a different story for Napoli. The Azzurri have a very tough match at the Maradona against Chelsea, and their fate is also tied to results on other fields.

To catch the playoff train, Conte needs to beat the Blues (even though that might not be enough in the unlikely event that all the clubs currently between 17th and 24th place win). A draw would mean crossing their fingers, waiting for good news from other matches. With a loss, elimination is certain.

🏆 Who lifts the cup?

Once again, Opta tried to go further, much further, attempting to predict who has the best chances of lifting the cup.

Again, few surprises: Arsenal leads the way, with over a 30% chance. Next are Bayern (16.75%) and City (8.81%).

The highest-ranked Italian team here is Inter, placed 10th among the potential winners, with just a 2.34% probability.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.

📸 STEFANO RELLANDINI - AFP or licensors