Corinthians face higher relegation risk after derby defeat, says university

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Central do Timão

·17 October 2025

Corinthians face higher relegation risk after derby defeat, says university

By Daniel Keppler / Central do Timão Editorial Team

Corinthians turned the warning light back on after a 3–1 loss to Santos, in a match played this Wednesday, the 15th, at Vila Belmiro, for the 28th round of the Brazilian Championship. As a result, the chances of relegation to Serie B in 2026 have risen again, according to updated calculations from the Mathematics Department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

The study indicates that the Alvinegro now has a 10.9% probability of relegation at the end of the Brazilian Championship, a significant increase compared to the previous scenario (when, after beating Mirassol, the risk had dropped to 5.7%). With that, the team is now the seventh most threatened in the competition — behind only Sport, Juventude, Fortaleza, Vitória, Santos, and Internacional.

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Photo: Rodrigo Coca/Ag. Corinthians

In addition to the increased risk of relegation, Timão also saw its chances of playing in a continental tournament in 2026 decrease. According to UFMG, Corinthians now has a 35.5% chance of competing in next season’s Copa Sudamericana — a steep drop from the previous rate of 51.9%. The probability of playing in the Copa Libertadores was also drastically reduced, from 2.9% to just 1.1%.

With the loss to Santos, Corinthians remained on 33 points in the Brasileirão, now occupying a more delicate position in the table. The team has eight wins, nine draws, and eleven losses, along with 30 goals scored and 35 conceded. The gap to the G6 is ten points, while the cushion over the Z4 has fallen to five points.

Corinthians’ next fixture, for the 29th round of the competition, will be at home, at Neo Química Arena, against Atlético-MG, this Saturday, the 18th, at 6:30 p.m. (Brasília time).

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