Corinthians face higher relegation risk after draw with Internacional

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Central do Timão

·3 October 2025

Corinthians face higher relegation risk after draw with Internacional

By Henrique Pereira / Central do Timão Editorial Team

Corinthians remains on high alert after the 1-1 draw with Internacional in the 26th round of the Brasileirão. This is because the club has seen its chances of relegation to the Serie B in 2026 increase, according to calculations by the Mathematics Department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

The study indicates that the Alvinegro Paulista now has a 16.5% chance of falling at the end of the Brazilian Championship, which represents an increase of 1.2% compared to the last round (15.3%). The team is seventh on the list of the most threatened, being surpassed by Internacional (16.6%), Santos (18.9%), Juventude (66.7%), Vitória (67.2%), Fortaleza (83.4%) and Sport (97.1%).

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Photo: Rodrigo Coca/Ag. Corinthians

Despite seeing the risk of relegation increase, Timão still has chances to compete in a continental tournament in 2026. According to UFMG, Corinthians has a 35.4% chance of competing in the Copa Sudamericana. However, in the previous round, the percentage was 36.7%.

The chances of competing in the Copa Libertadores, on the other hand, are very low. According to the study, the club has only a 0.95% chance of competing in the main competition in South America next season, which represents a drop compared to the 1.6% chance from round 25.

With the draw against Internacional, Corinthians has 30 points in 26 rounds of the Brazilian Championship. They are five points ahead of the first team in the Z-4, which is Vitória (25 points), but ten less than the first team in the Libertadores qualification zone, which is Bahia (40 points).

Now, Corinthians remains focused on the Brasileirão. Next Saturday, October 4, at 9 pm (Brasília time), Alvinegro will face Mirassol, at Neo Química Arena, for the 27th round of the Brazilian Championship.

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