Fiorentina’s nightmare: 12 winless games, what next for the Viola | OneFootball

Fiorentina’s season is taking on worrying contours, not only because of their position in the standings but also due to the weight of statistical history that haunts teams unable to win in the first twelve Serie A matchdays.

Fiorentina, nightmare start: 12 games without a win. What the precedents really say and what scenarios await the Viola

While the Viola fanbase swings between pessimism and hope for a comeback, the numbers tell a very clear story: since 1994-95, only one team, Cagliari in 2005-06, has managed to avoid relegation after such a negative start.

A heavy start: no wins in 12 matchdays

Paolo Vanoli’s team, just like Stefano Pioli’s before him, has yet to find a way to claim all three points. The 6 points collected, all from draws—no defeats under Vanoli but also no wins—place them in a fragile position, exposed to the risks that such a start entails.

Every misstep increases the sense of precariousness, especially when compared to historical data: in the 31 seasons with three points for a win, only Cagliari 2005-06 managed to avoid relegation after reaching the twelfth matchday without a single victory.

The Cagliari precedent: an exception that proves the rule

The case of the Sardinians remains unique for several reasons. At the twelfth matchday, they actually had fewer points than the current Fiorentina (5 compared to 6). With an unexpected comeback, that group managed to finish the season with 39 points, achieving a surprising fourteenth place.

Cagliari’s first win came on the thirteenth matchday: a 2-0 against Sampdoria that marked the beginning of their climb. It is precisely this turning point that makes the next matchday a crucial crossroads not only for Fiorentina, but also for Verona, who are also still winless.

The “thirteenth” as a watershed

Recent Serie A history is categorical: no team, from 1994-95 onwards, has managed to save themselves after finishing the first thirteen matchdays without a win.

The next matchday thus becomes a real statistical and psychological turning point. Fiorentina will face Atalanta in Bergamo, a tough away game but also one full of meaning. Verona, meanwhile, will visit Genoa. Both teams are called upon to end a drought that—otherwise—risks turning into an almost certain sentence.

What Fiorentina needs to turn things around

Analyzing the Viola’s journey, several critical areas emerge:

lack of incisiveness in the final third;

difficulty maintaining high intensity over the full ninety minutes;

poor consistency in creating high-percentage chances;

mental fragility in key moments of matches.

However, the team has shown defensive solidity and a decent ability to stay in the game, qualities that could become fundamental in the process of bouncing back. To change pace, they will need a win to break the psychological block and restore confidence to a group that, on paper, has technical qualities superior to their current position in the standings.

Who will be able to imitate the “Cagliari model”?

Serie A awaits important verdicts as early as the next matchday: Fiorentina and Verona are called to replicate the only useful precedent. The outcome of their respective matches could determine not only a reversal of the trend, but also the dividing line between the possibility of salvation and the real risk of a desperate fight until May.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.