Five reasons why ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ is inevitable in the Champions League final | OneFootball

Bookies and pundits have PSG as favourites over Arsenal in the Champions League final but a win for the French side is no guarantee.

The attacking process of the Parisian team has many predicting this will be a Hungarian hammering but history may well be on Arsenal’s side.

Here are five reasons why a 1-0 Arsenal win is just as likely as a PSG thumping.

Recent Champions League finals have not been goal-fests

You get the feeling that the more goals scored in the final, the more likely it is that PSG will be the winners.

Their attacking options are far greater than Arsenal’s but the good news for fans of the latter is that Champions League finals are rarely about who has the best attackers.

Given what’s on the line, Champions League finals have rarely been full of goals. But in recent years, they have become even more cagey.

Since the 2019 final, just one team has scored and between 2020 and 2023, the four finals all had a 1-0 scoreline.

PSG broke the trend with a 5-0 smashing of Inter Milan but that does come with the caveat that the Italian side was dead on its feet and had Barcelona gone through, it may have been a closer affair.

So there is a good chance that the final this year will be decided by a small margin and in that scenario, many would predict that Arsenal with their excellent defence would come away as victors.

Arsenal’s defensive record

An Arsenal victory will likely be built on their defence and for good reason.

The Gunners have conceded just six goals in the competition so far this season, two of which came in a dead rubber against Kairat Almaty with Kepa Arrizabalaga in goal.

Moving into the knockout period and Arsenal’s defensive record has been even better with just one goal conceded against Atletico Madrid.

Chelsea hold the record for fewest goals conceded by a Champions League winner with four in 13 but should Arsenal keep PSG out in Budapest, they will have conceded an average of 0.4 per game, marginally higher than Chelsea’s 0.31.

There is the caveat that Arsenal’s run to the Champions League final has been rather kind and PSG represents the toughest attacking test Arsenal have faced since Bayern Munich in November but David Raya and co. will fancy their chances.

At the other end, Arsenal’s main method to goal is clear – set-pieces.

No team scored more set-piece goals than Arsenal in the Premier League and in the Champions League, the Gunners have scored five on their way to the final, which is the joint sixth best in the competition.

But PSG can be vulnerable here. They are fifth for goals conceded via set-pieces by Champions League clubs on 22 and have conceded four in this Champions League this year. Arsenal have conceded just one.

Arsenal also have the aerial advantage with Gabriel and Saliba taller than their PSG counterparts Pacho and Marquinhos.

Teams don’t retain the Champions League (usually)

Since the competition rebranded in 1992, one thing has largely been true: the holders do not retain the trophy.

Just one team has ever done it with Zinedine Zidane’s Real Madrid putting a run of three in a row together but away from the Spaniard side – who have some sort of voodoo when it comes to this competition – teams do not retain the trophy.

Madrid may have been the first to win it back-to-back but they were not the first holders to make it to the final.

Milan won it in 1994 before losing to Ajax a year later. Ajax then went on to lose to Juventus in 1996. Juventus continued the trend by losing the 1997 final 3-1 against Dortmund.

PSG, then, arrive in Budapest with history against them. Meanwhile, that same history has been rather kind to second-time finalists…

Second time’s the charm for new winners

It’s been 20 years since Arsenal were in the Champions League final and now, ahead of their second final, anxious fans can take solace in the fact that history has usually rewarded those who are looking to win it on their second attempt.

Of the 24 Champions League/European Cup winners, 30% have won their first trophy at the second time of asking.

Milan, Ajax, Hamburg, Marseille, Chelsea and City have all done so as have PSG whose victory last year was their second time in the final. Arsenal will be hoping they can add their name to the list.