Fluminense eyes Brasileirão run-in with room to chase Libertadores spot | OneFootball

Fluminense enters the final stretch of the Brazilian Championship in a comfortable position in the race for a place in next season’s Libertadores. With 48 points earned and ten rounds still to play, the Tricolor has already surpassed the projected total for this stage of the competition and is now focused on reaching the mark considered safe to confirm qualification.

According to projections from the mathematics department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), a team that reaches 63 points has a 99% chance of finishing the championship in the Libertadores qualification zone. For Fluminense, that means needing 15 more points from the ten remaining matches.

In practice, that scenario could be achieved with five wins. Another possible combination would be four victories and three draws, reaching the same 15 points while still allowing room for three defeats in the final stretch of the competition.

Another projection analyzed by Gabriel Amaral, from the Raiz Tricolor channel, initially works with a target of 60 points for Fluminense to secure a Libertadores spot. The number is not treated as definitive, since it may be adjusted depending on the results of the teams competing for the top positions in the table.

The Tricolor, currently on 48 points, is three points above the total considered ideal for this stage of the competition in that projection. The situation allows the team to manage the final stretch better, although there is still a run of matches that will require attention.

Among the ten remaining fixtures are matches against Coritiba, Flamengo, Santos, Chapecoense, Internacional, Vitória, São Paulo, Mirassol, Cruzeiro, and Red Bull Bragantino.

Bahia has the toughest run among the contenders

In the battle for the remaining places near the top of the table, Atlético-PR, Bahia, and Cruzeiro appear as Fluminense’s direct rivals. The performances of those teams will be decisive in determining how many points will be needed to guarantee qualification.

Among the four teams analyzed, Bahia has the run considered the most difficult. The team still faces opponents who are also fighting for the top spots, such as Palmeiras and Flamengo, in addition to other more demanding fixtures.

In the analysis presented by Gabriel Amaral, a metric that assigns different weights to matches gives Bahia 12 difficulty points in its remaining schedule. The team also has the highest average opponent position among the ten upcoming fixtures.

São Paulo, on the other hand, takes on special importance in this race because it will face all four clubs involved in the battle for the spots. Because of that, the Tricolor Paulista’s results could directly affect the points total needed for qualification.

Fluminense can determine its own path

With 48 points and ten matches ahead, Fluminense depends mainly on its own campaign to turn its current advantage into qualification. The simplest calculation is to reach 60 points. UFMG’s projection, meanwhile, points to 63 as a total that would virtually guarantee a place in the Libertadores.

Fluminense’s challenge, therefore, is to collect between 12 and 15 points in the ten remaining rounds while keeping an eye on the performances of its rivals. The sooner the Tricolor reaches that points range, the less pressure there will be in the final rounds of the Brasileirão.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.