Italy eye third play-off? 😱 World Cup hopes, 2 scenarios 🔍

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OneFootball

·10 September 2025

Italy eye third play-off? 😱 World Cup hopes, 2 scenarios 🔍

Italy risks writing a new bitter chapter in its recent history: for the third consecutive time, it could end up in the playoffs to qualify for a World Cup.

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After the painful eliminations in 2017 (against Sweden) and 2022 (against North Macedonia), the Azzurri are once again with their backs against the wall.

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But what needs to happen for Italy to qualify directly without going through the playoffs?

👀 The Scenarios

The group situation is complicated: Italy does not depend solely on itself.

Option 1: Norway must draw or lose at least one of their two home matches against Estonia or Israel. In that case, if Italy wins all its matches and beats the Norwegians in the head-to-head clash in November, it would finish first.
Option 2: If both Italy and Norway win all their matches up to the head-to-head, then Italy must beat Norway and make up a goal difference of 16 goals. An almost impossible mission.