Italy v Israel: do-or-die for Azzurri’s World Cup hopes | OneFootball

After the victory against Estonia, Gattuso's National Team must secure three points in Debrecen to at least lock in second place and keep hopes of direct qualification alive.

Italy-Israel, do-or-die match: what the Azzurri need to stay in the race for the World Cup

The clear 5-0 win over Estonia has restored confidence to the Azzurri, but it hasn't changed the standings significantly. Italy is currently third in the group, with six points in three matches, behind Israel (9 points) and the leader Norway (12 points in four games). Only the first place directly qualifies for the World Cup in the USA, Mexico, and Canada 2026, while the second will have to go through the playoffs.

The match on Monday, September 8 against Israel is already crucial: winning would mean overtaking the opponents and consolidating the path towards at least the second spot, essential for having a chance in the March playoffs.

Goal difference: a key factor in the race for first place

Italy cannot afford any missteps: five wins are needed in the remaining five games, preferably with a large goal margin. This is because, in the event of a tie on points, the first criterion will be goal difference. Currently, Norway is at +11, while the Azzurri are at +4: the gap remains significant, but not insurmountable.

The decisive schedule

September 8, 2025, 20:45 – Israel-Italy

October 11, 2025, 20:45 – Estonia-Italy

October 14, 2025, 20:45 – Italy-Israel

November 13, 2025, 20:45 – Moldova-Italy

November 16, 2025, 20:45 – Italy-Norway

The direct clash with Norway (November 16) could be for first place, but only if Italy reaches that date having secured the maximum points.

Criteria in case of a tie on points

Overall goal difference

Higher number of goals scored in the group

Points obtained in head-to-head matches

Goal difference in head-to-head matches

Goals scored in head-to-head matches

Goals scored away in head-to-head matches

The stakes against Israel

Beating Israel would not only revive hopes of direct qualification but also guarantee at least the safety net of the playoffs, which will be held on March 26 and 31, 2026, with single-leg semifinals and finals.

Gattuso and his team know it well: in Debrecen, there will be no room for calculations, a convincing victory will be needed to stay in the race.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.