Italy’s best and worst case scenarios in World Cup group phase if they qualify | OneFootball

It is confirmed that Italy will be in pot 4 if they qualify for the 2026 World Cup, so we take a look at the best and worst-case scenarios if the Azzurri qualify.

Italy will need to go through the World Cup play-off to qualify for the competition in 2026 after missing the 2018 and 2022 editions.

Earlier this week, it was confirmed that countries qualifying through play-offs would go into pot 4, which means the Azzurri will theoretically have a quite tough group if they make it to the 2026 World Cup.

The three host countries, Canada, Mexico and the USMNT are in pot one alongside European and South American heavyweights.

MILAN, ITALY – NOVEMBER 16: General view inside the stadium prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Norway at San Siro Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Even pot 2 has some solid contenders, including 2018 finalists and 2022 semi-finalists Croatia.

Erling Haaland’s Norway already forced Italy to go through the qualifying play-offs by winning Group I and are in pot 3 alongside Mohamed Salah’s Egypt and Scott McTominay’s Scotland.

Luckily, however, there can be a maximum of two European teams in each group (one from other confederations), so, for example, if Italy draw Spain from pot 1, they can’t get Scotland from pot 3.

So, what would be Italy’s best- and worst-case scenarios look like if they qualify for the World Cup? Let’s take a look, keeping in mind that the absolute worst outcome for the Azzurri would be failing to reach yet another World Cup altogether.

Italy’s best and worst case scenarios in World Cup group

MILAN, ITALY – NOVEMBER 16: Players of Italy pose for a team photograph prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Norway at San Siro Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Best-case scenario (based on FIFA Ranking): Canada, Australia, South Africa.

Worst-case scenario (based on FIFA Ranking): Spain, Morocco, Panama

Spain are currently the top-ranked team in the FIFA Ranking, with defending champions Argentina sitting second.

If the Azzurri pick Argentina or Brazil from pot 1, then they could be paired with Croatia (pot 2), or Scotland and Norway (pot 3), making it not necessarily easier to qualify for the Round of 16.

Possibly, the worst-case scenario if Italy get a South American opponent from pot 1 will be: Argentina (or Brazil), Morocco, Norway (or Scotland).

World Cup group phase Pot 1-4

MILAN, ITALY – NOVEMBER 16: Players of Italy sing the national anthem prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Norway at San Siro Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Pot 1: Canada, Mexico, USA, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany

Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, IR Iran, Korea Republic, Ecuador, Austria, Australia

Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa

Pot 4: Jordan, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curaçao, Haiti, New Zealand, European Play-Off A, B, C and D, FIFA Play-Off Tournament 1 and 2