Jones Knows Notebook: A 9/1 'to be fouled' treble for Wednesday night's Premier League action | OneFootball

Why centre-backs being fouled is the new betting edge

If you want a betting market that rewards understanding football match-ups rather than predicting perfection, the "to be fouled" market is as good as it gets.

This market gets you invested from minute one. Your bet is alive until the last whistle and even when your man comes off with Safe Sub covering bets in the market. Every duel matters. Every time a player receives the ball under pressure, you're engaged.

Bookmakers price fouls largely off averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully account for is role within a specific match-up. A winger facing an aggressive full-back. A midfielder tasked with stopping transitions at source.

Those roles force contact. And contact leads to fouls.

And my favourite area to exploit in this type of market this season is the centre-forward committing fouls on centre-backs.

This season's Premier League is a bruising product to watch. The data and the eye test are telling the same story in that the league has tilted back towards directness - earlier balls forward, quicker vertical progression and far more emphasis on winning first contact. And when that happens, centre-forwards don't just score goals, they start giving away fouls.

The result? Centre-backs are being fouled more often than the market expects.

So, here are three defenders on Wednesday night that are great value in the to be fouled market.

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Sunderland v Liverpool: Virgil van Dijk to be fouled - 10/11

This isn't about Virgil van Dijk losing control or his cool. That rarely happens.

It's about Van Dijk being dragged into a very specific type of duel against his opponent in Brian Bobbey, who is not a subtle centre-forward. His game is built on confrontation.

Last season at Ajax he averaged 1.8 fouls per 90, which is a huge number for a striker operating in a possession-dominant side. Even more telling is the recent trend of nine fouls across his last six games where he is bullying big-name opponents.

Crystal Palace v Burnley: Maxime Esteve to be fouled - 8/5

Again, this is one of those bets that makes far more sense once you zoom in on who Maxime Esteve will be dealing with rather than his overall fouls won numbers.

Last season at Wolves, Jorgen Strand Larsen averaged 1.9 fouls per 90 - yet another huge number for a centre-forward and a clear indicator of how he plays the game. He's physical and is a handful to bypass when defenders are trying to play out.

What really sharpens this angle is what we saw on debut for Crystal Palace. Three fouls in his first appearance shows a striker visibly eager to impose himself and to make a statement.

Nottingham Forest v Wolves: Santiago Bueno to be fouled - 5/6

Whoever lines up at centre-forward for Nottingham Forest, the instruction will be to make it physical. Igor Jesus is averaging 1.79 fouls per 90 this season, which tells you everything about how he operates. Every touch is a contest when Jesus is around.

If Forest decide to introduce Lorenzo Lucca, fresh off scoring off the bench in the defeat at Leeds, the physical profile barely changes. In fact, it intensifies. Lucca averaged a hefty 2.43 fouls per 90 at Udinese last season - he's a towering centre-forward who uses his size enthusiastically and not always to the referees liking.