Jones Knows Notebook: Predicting the winners and losers of the Premier League festive period | OneFootball

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This is the time of the season to hit form. The festive period is that moment where everything can change. From December 26 to January 8 this campaign, Premier League teams are set to play four games in two weeks. It's a unique and brutal test.

Despite almost every other league taking a winter break of some sorts, English football sticks rigidly to tradition at this time of year, which means wall-to-wall football.

Depth of squads tested. Legs heavy.

This is where title credentials harden, top-four hopes wobble and relegation fears go from theoretical to very real. The margins are brutal in football anyway but in this period it's amplified.

Twelve points available. A swing of six or seven points on a rival isn't noise, it's a statement. With 17 matchdays gone, only seven points separate fourth-placed Chelsea from Bournemouth in 14th, so this period of games could really start to stretch out what has been a very condensed league table.

Teams with strong benches, clear tactical identities, reliable core players survive. And those without? They could spiral.

Trying to get ahead of curves of bad and good form for a team at this relentless time of the season is always something to take very seriously as punters.

Which teams could feel the pinch? And which teams are in prime position to thrive?

Having assessed the difficulty of the festive fixtures along with current injury issues, minutes played this season and squad depth, I've picked out the most likely winner and loser from this festive period.

The winner: Everton

There's a rhythm to the festive period that savvy managers understand and smart punters respect.

Putting faith in David Moyes to negotiate Everton through this period whilst taking lots of Premier League points could be a wise investment. This is down to part scheduling, part psychology and part managerial know-how.

Everton's run pits them against Wolves and Burnley, widely viewed as the two weakest outfits in the division, alongside fixtures with Brentford and Nottingham Forest. That's four games against teams you'd expect to finish in the bottom half this season. No festive trips to the title contenders. No back-to-back away days against Champions League-chasing sides. Just a steady, navigable path that invites points.

This festive period is not a time for tactical experimentation or rotation roulette. It's about habits, discipline and emotional control - all areas where Moyes thrives.

He's been around the block enough times to know how to manage training loads, how to squeeze results without chasing performances and how to keep players switched on when schedules blur into one another.

So, Everton are right at the top of my list when it comes to a team thriving during this period. Kind fixtures and a manager built for the grind.

The loser: Brighton

After running all the Premier League teams through a Christmas checklist of key criteria, Brighton are the team that set off a few alarm bells.

Trips away to Arsenal and Manchester City over Christmas is about as tough as it gets.

Recent form doesn't help their cause either. Brighton arrive into this stretch without a win in four games and confidence at Christmas is so important with the games stacking up. One early setback can snowball quickly when games are coming every three days. You don't get time on the training pitch to fix structural issues. You either cope or you crumble.

Which brings me to Fabian Hurzeler.

This is not a criticism of his talent, far from it, but the festive period is an examination of managerial experience. Rotation, recovery and squad management all come to the fore.

Hurzeler is still learning that side of the job, and the historical warning signs are there. Last December, his team went eight games without a win - a run that hinted at how demanding this period can be when the margins tighten.

December is ruthless to managers who stick rigidly to ideals. It rewards flexibility, caution and knowing when to shut a game down. Brighton's style asks a lot of players physically and mentally and against elite opponents away from home it's a very demanding task to play with such bravery.

That's what Brighton will have to navigate over the next two weeks in their trips to Arsenal and City. Hurzeler will not be changing the style.

In a league where Christmas points shape narratives, this could just be the start of a very tricky period for the Seagulls.