Jones Knows: The 'to be fouled' market is packed with value and there's a great bet at St James' Park | OneFootball

The art of predicting pressure points

The "to be fouled" market - on offer with Betfair - is my happy place.

It's not flashy. It doesn't come with the glamour of goalscorer markets or the bravado of correct scores. But if you're looking for an edge - a proper edge - this is one of the most misunderstood and mispriced markets that allows punters to back bets at odds very much in their favour.

And the reason comes from the fact the market is obsessed with historical data, when it should be obsessed with match-ups. When blind spots occur in betting markets, those looking to make money from this pastime need to act.

Most prices in the "to be fouled" market are built on raw averages, collated from raw fouls drawn per 90 and maybe a sprinkle of recent form here and there.

Yet the market largely ignores who is tasked with stopping that player.

That's where the value lives.

Prices are shaped by market opinion and most opinions in this market are lazy.

Punters see a player that averages 0.4 fouls drawn per game, shrug and move onto the next player.

But they're not asking: Who is marking him? What area of the pitch is he roaming in?

That's your edge.

In a world where everyone is chasing goals, cards and corners, the smartest money is often found where nobody else is looking, waiting patiently for the referee's whistle as a player wins the foul.

Newcastle v Chelsea Tip: James in the St James' foul firing line

Reece James to be fouled two or more times against Newcastle is a perfect example of how value can be hoovered up as this matchup is screaming contact.

James has a fouls drawn ratio of 1.29 per 90, so on first viewing for many punters the 17/10 on James to be fouled twice will be ignored.

But James is playing in exactly the area of the pitch where fouls in this game will be made. Newcastle's midfield is built on aggression.

Bruno Guimaraes (1.74 fouls per 90), Sandro Tonali (1.16) and Joelinton (1.87) are all happy to mix it.

They hunt. They press. They collide.

James loves to go looking for space but against a midfield that refuses to give any, the fouls come to him and have done in recent weeks anyway where his numbers are actually on the rise for fouls drawn.

In his last five appearances, where he's played central midfield, he's been fouled nine times, landing for two or more foul backers on three of those occasions.

The beauty of playing in this market is that you don't need reckless challenges for this bet to land. You need repeat situations. Two minor infringements over 90 minutes is a low bar when a player is consistently driving into busy traffic in the Newcastle midfield.

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