Kevin Hatchard's European Tips: Back goals in Serie A showdown | OneFootball

European Football Tips

Kevin Hatchard's looking for another profit this weekend

After making a two-point profit last weekend, Kevin Hatchard's back with another trio of tips from Italy, France and Germany.

Inter v Juventus - Derby d'Italia to strike sparks

Saturday 15 February, 19:45Live on TNT Sports

Inter have had the best squad in Italy for quite some time, but it's not always translated into winning silverware. They narrowly missed out on the Scudetto, the Champions League and the Coppa Italia last season, but this term they have built an eight-point lead at the top of the table.

Christian Chivu had a tall order replacing Simone Inzaghi as Inter coach, but the former Nerazzurri defender is doing a sterling job. He has suffered just four league defeats in 24 outings, although one of those was against Saturday night's opponents Juventus. That was a crazy 4-3 reverse in Turin, a game that Inter led 3-2 going into the 82nd minute.

I'm expecting goals again here. Juventus play on the front foot under former Napoli boss Luciano Spalletti, and seven of their last 12 matches have featured three goals or more. In Serie A, five of their last six games have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.

Inter have been scoring freely of late, putting five past Sassuolo and six past Pisa in recent matches. 14 of their 24 league games have featured three goals or more, and on home soil it's nine of 12 Serie A outings that have seen an Over 2.5 Goals wager hit the mark. Inter have the best attacking record in Serie A by a country mile, with 57 goals scored already.

For all these reasons, I'm pleasantly surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals trading at 2.04, and that's a great price.

Marseille v Strasbourg - De Zerbi exit won't fix issues immediately

Saturday 14 February, 16:00Live on Ligue 1 Pass

Life at Olympique de Marseille is rarely quiet for long, and firebrand coach Roberto De Zerbi was always going to out with sparks flying. The Italian offered his resignation after the dismal Champions League exit, but was kept on. However, he couldn't survive the embarrassing 5-0 hammering at the hands of PSG in Le Classique, and l'OM announced his departure by mutual consent.

Sporting director Mehdi Benatia offered his resignation, but he's still in situ, and he's reportedly leaning towards hiring recently axed Rennes boss Habib Beye. The 48-year-old was a Marseille player for four years, but he still has a point to prove as a coach, having won just 18 of 39 games at Rennes.

Marseille have won just four of their last ten matches in all competitions, and they have won just three of their last six at the Stade Velodrome. This weekend they face a Strasbourg team that is still in the mix to qualify for Europe, and that certainly hasn't collapsed since Liam Rosenior was replaced as coach by former Wolves and Bournemouth boss Gary O'Neil.

Strasbourg have won seven of their last 11 competitive matches, and they have won three of their last five on the road. They have the attacking quality to cause a spiralling Marseille team a few problems, and I'd recommend laying the rudderless hosts at 1.72.

Borussia Dortmund v Mainz - Hosts to crumble under title pressure

Friday 13 February, 19:30Live on BBC iPlayer

Borussia Dortmund are mathematically in a title race, and players like Nico Schlotterbeck and Julian Brandt are talking up BVB's chances of lifting the meisterschale. A win on Friday night against Mainz would halve the gap to leaders Bayern to just three points, but the truth is that Dortmund aren't playing as well as they need to truly push the champions hard.

In their last two games against relegation-threatened Heidenheim and Wolfsburg, Dortmund have needed late winners from Serhou Guirassy, and back in January they required a stoppage-time penalty to see off struggling St Pauli. That level of performance simply isn't going to be enough to beat a Mainz team that has been transformed since veteran coach Urs Fischer picked up the coaching reins.

Mainz were in the automatic dropzone when former Union boss Fischer replaced Bo Henriksen, but now the Zerofivers are out of the bottom three entirely. They have lost just one of their ten competitive games under Fischer, and last weekend they secured a vital 2-0 win over Augsburg.

It's worth noting that in that ten-game sample, Mainz drew at Bayern and won at RB Leipzig, and I think they can pick up at least a point here against a Dortmund team that is under pressure and without suspended captain Schlotterbeck. I'll lay the hosts at 1.62.

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