Kevin Hatchard's European Tips: Barca to win on their big day | OneFootball

European Football Tips

This week's column has four tips from Spain, Germany and Italy

After a profitable international break featuring four winners from five selections, our European football columnist Kevin Hatchard is back on the club beat, and he's picked out a quartet of bets...

Barcelona v Athletic Club - Camp Nou return will be a triumph

Saturday 22 November, 15:15Live on Premier Sports

For the first time in 909 days, Barcelona will play at their traditional Camp Nou home on Saturday, bringing to an end their exile at Montjuic's Olympic Stadium. A costly renovation that took far longer than expected is not yet complete, and less than half of the capacity is currently available, but the first stage of the return is finally at hand.

On the pitch, Barca made up ground on Real Madrid in the title race before the international break, as they won 4-2 at Celta Vigo, while Los Merengues were held to a goalless draw at Rayo Vallecano. The gap is now down to three points.

The issue for Barcelona is their high-risk defensive strategy, which relies on near-perfect timing and regular pressure on the ball. The summer departure of centre-back Inigo Martinez has proved to be a big blow, and Barca haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last ten games.

However, Barca do have an electrifying attack, and I think they'll be too strong for an Athletic Club side that is seventh in La Liga, but has had an underwhelming campaign. The Basque giants have won just five of 12 in the league, and lost three of four in the Champions League. Admittedly, the return from injury of Spain star Nico Wiliams from injury makes a big difference, and he scored a stunning winner in the last match against Real Oviedo.Barca have won nine of their last 11 La Liga games against Athletic, and I think they'll win here with room to spare against a team that has been missing key players through injury in almost every game. Seven of Barca's 11 competitive wins this season have been by a margin of two goals or more, and I'll back them -1.5 on the Asian Handicap here at 2.2 on the Exchange.

Bayern v Freiburg - Colombian ace can strike

Saturday 22 November, 14:30

Although Bayern Munich dropped points for the first time before the international break, their 2-2 draw at Union Berlin didn't prove costly, as their rivals slipped up. Borussia Dortmund conceded a last-gasp leveller at Hamburg, and RB Leipzig went down 3-1 at Hoffenheim.

Bayern face Freiburg in good spirits, and are looking to win a fifth straight league meeting with the Black Forest side. One player who looks particularly sharp at the moment is Luis Diaz, who has relished life in Bavaria since leaving Premier League champions Liverpool. The winger has scored in five of his last eight competitive games for Bayern, including a brace in a fine win at PSG in the Champions League. He also scored for Colombia against Australia on Wednesday, and given that he is suspended for the forthcoming UCL game against Arsenal, he is likely to start here.

Freiburg are having another solid season, but have only managed three clean sheets in the league, and I can see them being overwhelmed by Bayern's turbo-charged attack. Diaz looks a good bet to score here at 11/10.

Getafe v Atletico Madrid - Simeone's men too short to take the win

Sunday 23 November, 17:30Live on Premier Sports

While Atletico Madrid are on the rise after a tough start to the campaign, this short trip to face Getafe is exactly the kind of game they have struggled in this term on their travels. They have lost at Espanyol and drawn at Alaves, Mallorca and Celta Vigo. These aren't the results of a title contender, and it's their form at the Metropolitano that's keeping the season afloat.

On that basis, I have to lay Atletico at 1.8 here. Getafe's only home defeat this term was a 1-0 loss to Real Madrid, and they have avoided defeat against Atleti in three of the clubs' last five La Liga meetings.

Inter v Milan - Allegri to shut down derby

Sunday 23 November, 19:45Live on TNT Sports

It's a curious quirk that while Inter reached the Champions League final and pushed for the Serie A title last term, a much more modest Milan caused them problems in the Derby della Madonnina. Milan are unbeaten in the clubs' last five competitive meetings, and just two points separate them in this season's title race.

Inter are currently on a roll, having won 11 of their last 12 competitive matches, eradicating early doubts about whether new coach Christian Chivu could settle into life at a club he played for with distinction.

That kind of form will bring out the doggedness in Milan coach Max Allegri, and this feels like a game he would be happy to simply avoid defeat in. The Rossoneri have leaked just nine goals in 11 league matches this term, and goalkeeper Mike Maignan looks back to his solid best. Milan have performed well in the big games, beating Napoli and edging out Roma 1-0, so they can at least compete with an Inter team that probably is the best in Serie A.

I was attracted to the idea of backing Under 2.5 Goals here at 2.02. The numbers don't necessarily back it up, as the vast majority of Inter's games have gone over the 2.5 Goals line because of their supercharged attack, but my theory is that the defensively minded Allegri will just try to shut this game down.

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Recommended bets

Back Barcelona -1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.2

Back Luis Diaz to score @ 11/10

Lay Atletico Madrid @ 1.8

Back Under 2.5 Goals in Inter v Milan @ 2.02