Ligue 1 Tips: Marseille the smart selection in top-three battle

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·11 April 2025

Ligue 1 Tips: Marseille the smart selection in top-three battle

French Ligue 1

Adrien Rabiot will have a key role for Marseille this weekend

OneFootball Videos

After five winners from his last seven Ligue 1 selections, James Eastham reveals the top two bets on the French top flight fixtures taking place this weekend...

Oppose Monaco in the big Saturday game
Mika Biereth the goalscorer pick
Toulouse and Lille to serve up goals

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Monaco vs Marseille - Underrated visitors deserve support

Saturday, 16:00 GMTLive on Ligue 1 Pass

Marseille are the clear underdogs and deserve backing when they take on Monaco in a huge clash of top-three rivals at Stade Louis II on Saturday afternoon.

Marseille are second in the Ligue 1 standings behind already-crowned champions PSG, while Monaco are third. Marseille have 52 points, while Monaco have 50.

Yet, despite being one place and two points above Monaco, Roberto De Zerbi's visitors are clear outsiders. At the time of writing, they are 3.55 to collect all three points, while Monaco are 2.08, and The Draw is 3.95.

Why are Marseille such big odds? It is hard to say. They have done well not only generally this season, but, more specifically, also done well away from home: their W9-D0-L5 record on the road is the division's second-best, behind PSG.

They also have good team news. Argentina central defender Leonardo Balerdi may be ruled out, but their ex-Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has returned to training this week after a minor injury, and may be fit enough to start. In all other positions, the visitors should be at full strength.

Monaco will be dangerous opposition. In Mika Biereth, the hosts have one of the division's in-form strikers. The former Fulham trainee has scored 12 goals in 11 straight starts since joining Monaco from Sturm Graz in the January 2025 transfer window.

Biereth can be backed at 6/5 in the Anytime Goalscorer market. He is [EVS] to have 2 Or More Shots On Target. All Sportsbooks markets on the fixture can be accessed here.

Our main selection on the game is to support Marseille. You can back Marseille And Draw on the Double Chance market at 8/11. Alternatively, simply lay Monaco on the Exchange. By doing so, you will make a profit as long as Marseille avoid defeat.

Toulouse vs Lille - Make Over 2.5 Goals your pick

Saturday, 18:00 GMTLive on Ligue 1 Pass

We believe the market has underestimated the chances of Toulouse's home game against Lille being a high-scoring encounter on Saturday evening.

Toulouse's last three games have all been high-scoring: they lost 2-1 at Strasbourg on March 16, 4-2 at home to Brest on March 30, and 3-2 at Marseille last weekend.

The trend goes back further than that. Six of Toulouse's last eight Ligue 1 matches have had three goals or more, with an average goals-per-game count of 3.75 across those eight games.

Lille's games have been high-scoring in recent weeks, too. Seven of their last 11 Ligue 1 fixtures have featured three or more goals, including their 2-1 defeat at Lyon last weekend.

Lille will go flat-out to win this weekend. They have fallen to seventh in the table, which is lower than they would like to be. But they are just three points below third spot, meaning their objective of securing a Champions League place (i.e. top four in the finals standings) remains a realistic one.

The attacking approach we expect from Lille, plus the general high-scoring nature of games involving these two sides in the past couple of months, makes Over 2.5 Goals the smart selection on the game.

We were surprised to find that Over 2.5 Goals is such a big outsider on this match. Under 2.5 Goals is available at 1.64, while Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at 2.32. In our view, the odds on Over 2.5 Goals are well worth taking.