Man City FFP: Kieran Maguire claims City face ‘catastrophe’ as he reveals massive cost of relegation | OneFootball

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has revealed how much relegation from the Premier League would cost Manchester City after the guilty FFP verdict.

Last week, it was confirmed that Man City have been found guilty on 114 of their 115 FFP charges after the Premier League referred the club to an independent comission at the start of 2023.

After a six-week hearing at the end of 2024, the case has dramatically gone against Man City, even though they have been insisting on their innocence throughout the process.

Enzo Maresca‘s side have appealed the verdict, but it has been widely reported that this is unlikely to go in their favour. Therefore, they face severe sanctions ranging from a fine to being stripped of their Premier League titles.

Man City could also exit the Premier League by relegation with a points deduction or by expulsion, and there are several knock-on effects if this happens.

This includes a substantial loss of revenue, with Maguire explaining that Man City’s annual revenue ‘could fall by around £500m’ if they drop to the Championship.

Maguire explains that the loss of broadcasting (£50m) and Champions League (£225) revenue could total £275m, while the matchday revenue could fall by around £40m.

“City fans will still turn up,” Maguire told The i Paper.

“That’s not an issue. We’ve seen that with West Ham. They get relegated, but the hardcore fanbase will remain.

“What Manchester City will struggle to do is to sell the boxes, to sell the experiences, to sell the Tunnel Club offerings at the prices which they’ve been charging this season. Because you can’t do it.

“You can’t do it at home to Swansea and expect to get the same money coming in as you have when you’ve got Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal and so on.”

“There’s an FFP catastrophe unless…”

Maguire went on to explain that Man City’s “main hit” could come from a severe reduction of their commercial revenue.

“Would Etihad Airways, for example, be willing to pay the same amount of money to Manchester City in the Championship? I guess you’d have to ask Etihad Airways that particular question,” Maguire added.

“So that would be the main hit. But I would imagine that other partners would want to move away.

“The average commercial revenue for a club in the Championship is probably around about £10-20m.

“Manchester City would be a separate case because they are certainly big players, but even when Leeds United were in the Championship, to get around £30m of commercial revenue, you’re doing really well.”

He added: “Regardless, put those figures together and it’s going to be a handbrake stop as far as revenues are concerned.”

With Man City’s 2024/25 wage bill standing at around £408.4m compared to the Championship average of £37m, Maguire claims City face a “FFP catastrophe” if most of their big earners do not leave following relegation.

The current Squad Cost Rules (SCR) rules in the Football League allow clubs to spend 85% of their allowable income on player and/or manager costs.