Manchester City v Chelsea: Back more Etihad goals for the hosts at 13/8 | OneFootball

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Matchday 20 in the Premier League concludes with a mouthwatering prospect as title-chasing Man City host a now manager-less Chelsea. Mike Norman has been in fine form recently and our man has a 13/8 nap selection for you to consider...

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Manchester City v ChelseaSunday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

City strong at home and Blues get rid of Maresca

Manchester City's eight-game winning run came to an end at the Stadium Of Light on Thursday evening when they could manage only a goalless draw against the Premier League's surprise package Sunderland, and as a result they fell four points behind Arsenal at the top of the table after Matchday 19. They are out to 2/1 to win the Premier League title.

The result was undoubtedly a blow for the Citizens in a week in which the Gunners thumped in-form Aston Villa to increase their lead over the teams below them, but there should be no reason to raise the alarm just yet, especially back on home soil where Pep Guardiola's men have been in fantastic form.

City have won their last eight Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium, scoring at least three goals in seven of those matches, and also keeping a clean sheet in three of their last four wins including a 3-0 victory over Liverpool.

In contrast, Chelsea travel to Manchester this weekend in pretty poor form. The Blues have won just one of their last seven in the Premier League, a sequence of results that not only saw them commence Matchday 20 fully 15 points behind Arsenal in the table, but it also resulted in the club parting company with head coach Enzo Maresca on New Year's Day. Under-21s head coach Calum McFarlane will be in charge for Sunday's game.

Away from home Chelsea are on a run of three Premier League games without a win though they did draw two of those matches meaning they've actually lost just once on the road in the league in their last six outings (W3, D2, L1).

City worthy favourites to take all three points

Manchester City's recent record at home to Chelsea is a pretty strong one. Guardiola's men have won five and drawn one of their last six clashes in all competitions at the Etihad Stadium, four of those victories being achieved without conceding a single goal. They also beat the Blues 1-0 at Wembley in a FA Cup semi-final the season before last.

So given the above, in addition to City being 11 points ahead of Chelsea in the Premier League table, plus the Blues going into this game without a permanent manager, then it's no surprise to see the home side favourites in the Match Odds market at 8/13.

In fact, I'm of the opinion that 8/13 isn't a bad price about City collecting all three points, especially give that Chelsea will be without one of their star midfielders, Moses Caicedo, who is suspended for this game, and possibly defender Marc Cucurella, but as always when it comes to predicting the Blues, we just don't know what Chelsea team is going to turn up.

We simple won't know until the day whether they will have a positive reaction to losing Maresca, a negative one, or whether it will just be same old, same old, a team that looks good on paper but often falls short of delivering on their potential. They can be backed at 15/4 on the Sportsbook to take all three points while the Draw can be backed at 7/2.

Below you can see a chart showing the percentage chance for each outcome using the Betfair Exchange Match Odds market.

Stick with City recent goalscoring trend

So while I do believe City will win Sunday' game, rather than take the odds-on price about them doing so, my thinking is that it will be wise to follow the stand out stat ahead of this clash, which is that Guardiola's men have scored three or more goals in their last five consecutive Premier League home games.

They've actually scored three plus goals in seven of their last eight home game in the league - the only time they failed to do so was a 2-0 win over Everton - and they also scored four goals at home to Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League during this spell (though they did lose 0-2 at home to Bayer Leverkusen during this time with a much changed starting XI).

While praising Sunderland's fighting spirting following Thursday night's goalless draw, Guardiola was fuming that City failed to win that game and keep tabs on Arsenal at the top of the table, and he'll have his players fired up to get back to winning ways at the first time of asking.

Against a relatively out-of-form Chelsea side I can easily see the Citizens scoring at least another three home goals at 13/8 and that will be my main bet of game in addition to my two stats-based bets further down this page.

The picks of the Opta-stats based bets

Bet #1 - Haaland in fine form at the Etihad

The Stat

Erling Haaland has scored 11 goals in eight Premier League home games for Man City this season, netting twice in five different games. The last player to score 2+ goals in more different home games in a season was Haaland himself in 2022-23 (6).

The Bet

Bet #2 - Man City to maintain good recent record against Blues

The Stat

Man City are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games against Chelsea (W6 D2), their joint-longest run without defeat against the Blues in their league history (also 8 between 1936 and 1949). Chelsea have won their first league game in just one of the last nine calendar years (D6 L2), beating Fulham 1-0 in 2024.

The Bet

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Recommended bets

Back (2pts) Man City to Score Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/8

Back (1pt) Erling Haaland to Score 2+ Goals @ 3/1

Back (1pt) Man City HT/Man City FT @ 7/5