Manchester City v Galatasaray: Top eight finish on the cards for Pep Guardiola | OneFootball

Why Man City are value to qualify in top eight

This is one of those Champions League nights where the maths matters just as much as the football.

Manchester City know the drill. Anything other than a win and the top eight is gone. Three points, though, and the door is very much ajar.

Bettors on the Betfair Exchange have City priced around 1.30 to beat Galatasaray, which tells you everything about expectations. The market is screaming that Pep Guardiola's side will take care of business. And I agree. This is a must-win, at home, with elite motivation levels. City usually deliver in these spots.

With victory, City leapfrog at least one of PSG or Newcastle, who inconveniently for both of them are playing each other. That alone removes one obstacle. From there, City would still need four of the other eight teams sitting on 13, 14 or 15 points to fail to win. Sounds a lot? Not really when you dig into the fixtures.

By my workings, City have a 60% chance of finishing in the top eight if they win here. The market, however, is dangling 4/5 on City making it, which implies just a 55% chance. That's a chunky enough gap for me to pay attention - and ultimately to back it.

The teams above them in the table all have questions to answer to win their fixture. Sporting away at Athletic Club? That's a serious test. Tottenham in Frankfurt? I wouldn't be trusting Spurs away from home in that environment. Chelsea travelling to Napoli is far from a banker -- that's a proper European away day where Antonio Conte will have his team fired up to keep alive in the competition.

To my eye, the market has slightly misjudged the probability of enough results breaking City's way.

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Goals party again in Champions League

The line being set at 3.75 goals on the Betfair Exchange at 1.97 feels high on the face of it for this fixture.

But this isn't a normal Champions League night and that's where the angle opens up for those looking to attack over goals. The final matchday of last season's league phase averaged 3.56 goals per game across the board. This season, the competition as a whole is running at 3.39 goals per game. That tells us this format is producing goals, and it's doing so consistently.

And Galatasaray aren't a side that will come to shut up shop. They play with width, with risk and crucially, with pride. This could be a perfect storm for goal-crazy game with one team piling on the pressure and the other willing to engage rather than survive.

Cherki's creative form screams value in assist market

Rayan Cherki to register an assist at anything bigger than Evens in this Manchester City side, in this form, is a bet. We're pulling the trigger here then as the Betfair Sportsbook have dangled 6/5 our way.

Cherki is averaging an assist every 0.58 per 90 minutes this season, which is elite creative production. He already has nine assists to his name. This is sustained, repeatable chance creation in a team that absolutely farms high-quality opportunities.

Cherki in this City setup is an exciting player to watch. He's up there with the signings of the season. When you play for Manchester City, assists don't need to be spectacular, they just need to be timely, especially when you play alongside someone like Erling Haaland. A simple pass, a cut-back, a clever reverse ball are all avenues for potentially landing the bet.

There's also the game-state angle. City, in must-win mode, will dominate possession, territory and most likely the total goal output. They won't sit on a 1-0. They'll push, probe and suffocate. That's exactly the environment where a player like Cherki thrives where he's able to have lots of touches and repeat entries into the box.