Marcus Pedersen deal DONE in principle — he leaves Torino tonight for Athens, with medicals and a four-year Olympiacos contract next | OneFootball

Marcus Pedersen may be approaching an Olympiacos move, but unlike Joakim Mæhle and Rafik Belghali, this is a transfer where the underlying performance profile raises considerably more questions than excitement.

Olympiacos and Torino have reportedly moved toward an agreement for the 26-year-old Norway international, with the deal discussed around €6 million guaranteed plus another €2 million in bonuses.

From a market perspective, it is an executable transaction. From a scouting perspective, I am considerably less convinced. Because when Pedersen's numbers are placed alongside the other right-back profiles Olympiacos have explored this summer, the Norwegian looks like the weakest overall footballer of the group. There is athleticism. There is carrying ability. There is pace. But there are also serious deficiencies in possession, defensive production and technical involvement. And at a possible €8 million total cost, those deficiencies matter.

The athleticism jumps off the page — almost everything else does not

The easiest argument for Pedersen is also the most obvious one. He can run. His percentile profile shows:

1v1 Dribble Wins — 85.7th percentileProgressive Carries — 84.1st percentile

Those are excellent numbers. He can take space with the ball, beat opponents and advance possession through physical acceleration rather than needing passing combinations to move the team forward.

That is a legitimate weapon. It also explains the attraction for José Luis Mendilibar. Olympiacos want aggressive full-backs. They want players willing to overlap, attack open grass and recover quickly when possession is lost.

Pedersen certainly looks capable of satisfying the physical side of that job. The concern is what happens after the running.

His passing profile is alarmingly weak

This is where the data becomes difficult to ignore. Pedersen sits at only:

14.3rd percentile — Passes Attempted

14.3rd percentile — Pass Accuracy

22.2nd percentile — Progressive Passes

4.8th percentile — Passes to Final Third

30.2nd percentile — Smart Passes

For a team such as Olympiacos, that is concerning. Domestic football in Greece is not primarily about having enough speed to attack transition space. Olympiacos will spend large stretches of the season facing opponents with eight, nine or ten players behind the ball. The right-back regularly has to participate in circulation. Receive under pressure. Progress possession. Combine with the winger. Find an interior midfielder.

Deliver into the final third. And help Olympiacos move a compact block from side to side. Pedersen's statistical profile does not suggest a player who consistently excels at those tasks. That is probably my biggest reservation about the transfer.

His progression comes overwhelmingly through carrying rather than passing

There is a fascinating contrast in the profile. Pedersen ranks in the 84th percentile for progressive carries but only the 22nd percentile for progressive passing. That tells us quite a lot stylistically. If you give him space, he can move the team forward himself. If you ask him to progress the ball through distribution, the output falls dramatically. That can work beautifully in transition. It becomes much less useful when the opponent refuses to give him the space to run.

And that describes a large percentage of Olympiacos' domestic schedule. The question therefore becomes whether Pedersen is being recruited for the football Olympiacos want to play, or for the football opponents will actually allow them to play.

Even the attacking production is more average than spectacular

Pedersen does reasonably well in several attacking categories, but this is not an elite attacking full-back profile.

The numbers shown are:

Goals — 51.6th percentile

xG — 61.1st

Assists — 62.7th

xA — 69.8th

xG + xA — 69.8th

Key Passes — 57.9th

That is respectable. It is not transformative. There is some final-third contribution and his xA number is encouraging, but very little here suggests Olympiacos are buying one of Serie A's most productive attacking wide defenders.

The defensive profile is the biggest red flag

This is where I become considerably more skeptical about paying starter-level money.

Pedersen ranks at:

30.2nd percentile — Defensive Duels Won

4.8th percentile — Interceptions

42.9th percentile — Shots Blocked

11.1th percentile — Aerials Won

Those are poor numbers. And for a Mendilibar team, that matters. Olympiacos defend aggressively. The back line gets exposed. Full-backs are frequently required to defend transitions without the protection they would receive inside a deeper defensive block.

Pedersen's recovery speed may allow him to get back into situations. The numbers raise the question of what happens once he gets there.

Can he consistently win the duel?

Can he anticipate the pass before the sprint becomes necessary?

Can he defend the back post?

Can he deal with stronger aerial opponents?

The current profile does not provide much reassurance.

The interceptions number is particularly worrying

A 4.8th-percentile interception rate is extremely low. Interceptions are not purely an athletic statistic.

They frequently reflect:

positioning;

anticipation;

reading passing lanes;

and understanding where the next action will develop.

Those are precisely the qualities that help a full-back survive in an aggressive defensive structure. A fast defender can recover from a positioning mistake. A smart defender prevents the race from happening.

Ideally, Olympiacos want both.

Pedersen's profile currently looks far stronger in the first category than the second.

Mæhle remains the much safer footballer

This is why I would still prefer Joakim Mæhle if the economics remain anywhere close. Mæhle is older.

There is less resale upside. But he brings a level of tactical experience and versatility Pedersen simply does not.

He has played on both sides. He has operated in sophisticated structures at Atalanta. He has extensive international experience with Denmark.

He offers more evidence that he can solve different match situations rather than relying predominantly on athletic qualities. Pedersen may be younger and faster. Mæhle looks much more complete. If Olympiacos are spending €6–8 million principally to improve the starting XI today, completeness matters.

I would probably prefer Belghali's upside as well

Rafik Belghali comes with more developmental risk. But he is 24 and offers a much more interesting appreciation curve. If Olympiacos are willing to tolerate imperfections, I would rather tolerate them in a player who could still grow substantially and become a valuable outgoing asset.

Pedersen is 26. He is not old, but we are approaching the stage where what we see is more likely to resemble what we get. That makes his weaknesses harder to dismiss as simple youth-development issues.

The price changes everything

If Pedersen were available for €3–4 million, this becomes a much easier conversation.

You are buying:

elite running;

ball-carrying;

Serie A experience;

international experience;

and a physical profile Mendilibar may believe he can maximize.

At a potential €8 million, the standard changes. That is significant money for Olympiacos. For that expenditure, I would want a player who clearly improves several phases of the position. Pedersen currently looks much more like a specialist profile. He gives you pace. He gives you verticality. He gives you running. The rest of the package is far less convincing.

There is also a danger of overcorrecting after Maffeo

Olympiacos' first right-back decision this summer failed spectacularly quickly. That naturally creates pressure to find somebody whose physical qualities make the Mendilibar fit obvious. Pedersen certainly passes that test.

But football cannot become: Maffeo lacked the required athletic fit, therefore buy the fastest alternative.

The recruitment department still has to evaluate technical quality, defensive reading and possession value.

Pedersen's numbers suggest those areas deserve much deeper scrutiny.

His combination with Tiknizyan could be extremely aggressive — perhaps too aggressive

Imagine the likely full-back pairing. Tiknizyan attacks aggressively from the left. Pedersen attacks aggressively from the right. Both can carry forward. Both want to run.

That could be devastating against certain opponents. It could also leave Olympiacos with enormous defensive spaces if neither provides enough positional control. This makes the defensive-midfield signing critical. A player such as Edson Álvarez would not merely improve the midfield.

He could become necessary protection for two highly adventurous full-backs. Without that anchor, Olympiacos risk building a back line perfectly designed to attack and insufficiently designed to survive the moment possession disappears.

There is still a scenario where Mendilibar makes this work

That deserves acknowledgment. Statistical profiles do not determine a transfer by themselves. Pedersen's role at Torino is different from the one he would have at Olympiacos. Mendilibar may believe the player's athleticism allows him to simplify the assignment:

press aggressively;

overlap;

carry;

attack the line;

recover immediately.

Olympiacos may also believe improved possession structure around him can hide some of the passing limitations. That is possible. And his elite carrying numbers are genuine weapons. But it requires coaching to compensate for deficiencies rather than simply amplifying existing strengths. That is a less comfortable recruitment proposition.

Of the right-backs linked, Pedersen is the one I have the most doubts about

This is ultimately where I land. Mæhle gives Olympiacos the most complete and proven profile.

Belghali gives them the most interesting younger-upside profile. Pedersen gives them the clearest athletic profile. But the data indicates that the athleticism comes with substantial tradeoffs.

Poor passing involvement.

Very little progressive passing.

Extremely low final-third passing.

Low defensive-duel output.

Very low interceptions.

Weak aerial production.

Those are not small details.

They represent large portions of what a modern full-back is asked to do. So while Pedersen may indeed become the player Olympiacos sign, I would have a much harder time calling this a clear upgrade based purely on the evidence available. At €6m + €2m, this is not a low-risk gamble. It is a significant investment in the belief that Mendilibar can build around an explosive physical skill set while improving—or hiding—the weaker parts of the player. That can work.

But compared with the other right-backs Olympiacos have pursued, Marcus Pedersen is the first one where the data makes me question the transfer more than it makes me want to see it completed.