Opta Predicts Arsenal v Tottenham: Back North London derby bet builder at 5/1 | OneFootball

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

Arsenal emerge from the final international break of 2025 at the top of the Premier League table, though the Gunners may soon be feeling the pressure.

Brian Brobbey's last-gasp equaliser saw them drop two valuable points in a 2-2 draw with Sunderland prior to the hiatus, while an injury to key centre-back Gabriel Magalhaes over the international break represents a real blow.

And a fanbase that has seen Manchester City twice overhaul their side for the title may have experienced a flash of déjà vu when they saw Pep Guardiola's side thump Liverpool 3-0 to breathe fresh life into their hopes.

On Sunday, Arsenal return to the Emirates Stadium for the first North London derby of the season, with rivals Tottenham in need of a result after an up-and-down start to life under Thomas Frank.

But what should be expected from the latest chapter in one of the Premier League's most storied rivalries? We have run through the best Opta stats and picked out our favourite Bet Builder selections.

Arsenal favourites despite injury concerns

Arsenal are clear favourites for victory on the sportsbook, at a price of 4/11 with Betfair's 90 Minute Guarantee.

They are also strongly backed by the Opta supercomputer, being handed a 69% win probability compared to just 13.7% for Spurs. The draw comes in at 17.3%.

There are plenty of reasons for the Gunners being worthy of that status as favourites, including their proud recent derby record.

Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games against Tottenham (one draw), including the last three in a row. It is their longest winning run against Spurs since enjoying a five-match stretch that ended in 1989.

Spurs, who have lost seven of their last nine league derbies against Arsenal (one win, one draw) are considered longshots for victory at 13/2, with the draw available at 3/1.

Tottenham have not had many fruitful visits across North London in recent years. Indeed, Arsenal have lost just one of their last 32 top-flight home games against Spurs, winning 19 and drawing 12, with that lone defeat coming by a 3-2 scoreline in November 2010.

Spurs did not exactly carry much momentum into the international break, either. Since returning from the previous break in October, they have won just two of their last six games in all competitions, beating Everton in the Premier League and Copenhagen in the UEFA Champions League (two draws, two defeats).

The fact Arsenal could be without several key players may prompt some punters to take pause before backing a home win at a short price.

Indeed, Gabriel is not their only injury concern. Viktor Gyokeres' condition remains uncertain after he missed Sweden's final World Cup qualifiers, while Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz are still out, potentially giving Mikel Arteta a selection dilemma up front. Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli and Riccardo Calafiori are among their other doubts.

But Gabriel's absence could prove particularly troublesome. Since the start of 2022/23, Arsenal have won 67.6% of their league games when the defender has started (75/111), compared to just 50% without him (7/14).

For those unsure about Arsenal's ability to cope with those fitness concerns, Spurs are 15/8 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market or 2/1 on the handicap +1. Alternatively, the visitors can be given a +2 goal headstart and backed at 8/13.

They are the only team still unbeaten away from home in the Premier League this season, with four wins and a draw. They have collected the joint-most points (13), scored the joint-most goals (12) and conceded the fewest (three) of any team on their travels.

But Arsenal's exceptional defensive record makes it difficult to back any of their opponents, particularly a side as inconsistent as Spurs, even if Gabriel is sidelined.

Seven of Arsenal's 11 league games this season have contained under 2.5 goals, and this campaign, they boast the division's best defence in terms of goals conceded (five), expected goals against (6.1 xGA), clean sheets (seven) shots faced (81) and shots on target faced (21).

Such has been Arsenal's defensive dominance, they have faced at least 20 fewer shots than any other team in the top flight this campaign, at least 10 fewer shots on target, and have given up at least 4.3 fewer xGA.

Incredibly, Man City superstar Erling Haaland is the only visiting player to score at the Emirates in eight matches across all competitions in 2025/26.

With that in mind, a price of 10/11 for under 2.5 match goals may appeal more than 5/6 for over 2.5. Under 3.5 goals is 1/3 and could be a tempting choice as part of a Bet Builder, while Tottenham are 5/6 to fail to score.

It is 11/10 for both teams to score and 8/11 for that to not be the case. Both sides have netted in only three of Arsenal's 11 league games this season, though they have done so in five of those involving Tottenham.

It should also be noted that Arsenal have scored a higher percentage of their goals from set-pieces (50%, excluding penalties) than any other team in the Premier League this season, so they have not always been free-flowing in open play.

A home win to nil is available at 5/4.

All but one of Arsenal's 14 victories in all competitions this season have been accompanied by a clean sheet, and they have won three of the last seven North London derbies to nil.

The data would suggest a goalfest is unlikely, and Arsenal's unrivalled defensive record gives them the edge.

England trio carry Gunners' hopes

Gyokeres has attracted some criticism during his early months at the Emirates, despite his four goals being the most of any Gunners player in the Premier League this season.

If the Swede misses out with the hamstring injury that caused him to skip international duty, Mikel Merino may get another chance to play as a makeshift centre-forward, having reprised that role against Sunderland after performing it several times during the run-in last season.

Merino is also 2/5 to record one shot on target or 9/5 to manage two, though he only averages one shot on target per 117 minutes of Premier League action in an Arsenal shirt.

The fact Merino has most often been used as a central midfielder (62% of his total minutes in the last two seasons) plays into that, but perhaps there are other players Arteta can rely on to carry a greater threat.

Both Saka and Eberechi Eze were on the scoresheet as England defeated Serbia 2-0 during the international break, and they are 13/8 and 15/8, respectively, to net here.

Saka has scored in two of his last three league games against Spurs, having only netted once in his first seven against them.

He also has three assists versus Tottenham, meaning he averages a goal involvement every 129 minutes in this fixture, only contributing to a goal more often against Southampton (every 93 mins) among teams he has faced more than five times in the Premier League.

Saka is 21/10 to register an assist or 5/6 for a goal involvement, either of which could prove attractive selections.

Eze, meanwhile, has attempted 19 top-flight shots this season, with only Gyokeres (20) registering more for Arsenal. His per-90 average of 2.74 shots attempted is the most of any Gunners player and ranks 13th among everyone in the Premier League.

The playmaker is 8/13 to slightly outperform that per-90 average and attempt three shots, or 17/10 to fire off four, which he has done three times in his last six league matches. It is 4/9 for him to get one effort on target, a tempting 21/10 for two, and 7/1 for 3+.

Eze was on the verge of joining Spurs from Crystal Palace before making an eleventh-hour decision to head to the Emirates, so he will surely get a lively reception from the away fans.

A third England international, Declan Rice, could be another intriguing selection in the shots markets, particularly given he is usually on free-kick duty.

Rice is 13/10 to register a single shot on target, something he has achieved in four of Arsenal's last five league games, scoring twice in that span.

He had three shots against Sunderland and is 12/5 to replicate that here - either selection could look good if Spurs sit off their hosts and cede possession near the edge of their area.

Since the start of last season, no Arenal player has attempted more shots from outside the area in the Premier League than Rice (29), while only Trossard (87) and Saka (84) have fired off more attempts overall, with Rice getting 45.2% of his efforts on target (19).

But if Eze is included in those charts, taking into account his final campaign with Palace, he leads the way for total shots (127), shots from outside the area (66) and shots on target (37), showing just how often the 27-year-old tries his luck.

On the Spurs side, this will be the first North London derby in the Premier League to not feature either Harry Kane or Son Heung-min since a 1-1 draw at the Emirates in 2014. Between them, Kane (14) and Son (eight) are responsible for 27% of Spurs' total league goals against Arsenal (22/82).

So, the visitors will be looking for a new derby hero this weekend, and Richarlison is their first player in the any time goalscorer market at 7/2. Randal Kolo Muani is 4/1, with Mathys Tel, who like Richarlison, scored against Manchester United last time out, available at 9/2.

Richarlison leads all Spurs players for shots (2.71) and shots on target (1.0) per 90 minutes in the Premier League this campaign, and he is 4/7 to attempt at least two shots, 15/8 to try three, or 5/6 to get one on target and a tempting 7/2 for 2+ SoT.

Mohammed Kudus is 6/1 to score any time, and there is hope he will be available after sitting out Ghana's recent matches due to a minor knock. No player can better his four Premier League assists this season, and he is also 6/1 to tee up a goal. To cover both bases, he is 7/2 to either score or assist.

If Kudus is not fit, then Brennan Johnson seems likely to start on the right. The winger can be backed at 6/1 to score and 4/1 for a goal contribution.

Saka to receive rough treatment?

Derbies are often punctuated by niggly fouls, and given neither Arteta nor Frank are afraid to make use of the dark arts, it would be no surprise if this is a tetchy affair.

Spurs have committed the joint-sixth most fouls in the Premier League this season, with 127, while Arsenal have conceded 115, putting them 12th.

And in Bukayo Saka, the hosts have one of the players most consistently subjected to rough treatment from defences.

Saka has been fouled, on average, 2.5 times per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.

Among all players to play at least 600 minutes, only Jack Grealish (3.6), Patrick Dorgu (3.3), Brenden Aaronson and Bruno Guimaraes (both 2.6) win more fouls per game.

Saka is 3/10 to be fouled at least twice, or if you fancy Spurs to subject him to particularly close attention, it is 10/11 for the winger to win three fouls - he has done so on three of his last five outings in the competition.

In terms of fouls committed, Djed Spence is likely to be in direct competition with Saka, having nailed down a starting spot on the left side of Spurs' defence. He is 3/10 to concede a foul and 6/4 to commit two or more.

Joao Palhinha is known for his physical approach in midfield, having led all Premier League players for tackles attempted in each of his two full campaigns with Fulham in 2022/23 and 2023/24. He also leads the way in 2025/26, with 49.

Palhinha is also Spurs' most-fouled player this season, winning 1.46 per 90. He is 3/10 to be fouled at least once and 13/10 to be fouled twice, which could certainly come to pass if the midfield battle becomes a key part of Sunday's game.

However, with Tottenham likely to spend long periods defending, Palhinha may have to get through plenty of off-the-ball work. He can backed to commit 2+ fouls at 4/5 and is 3/1 for 3+.

Set-pieces likely to be key

As already referenced, Arsenal are the Premier League's most lethal teams from dead balls, scoring 10 goals from set-plays (excluding penalties) already this season.

The Gunners have also taken the most corners in the division, with 75. Chelsea are second with 71, with Spurs following in third with 67.

Those figures work out at per-game averages of 6.8 for Arsenal and 6.1 for Spurs.

Arteta's side can be backed at 6/10 to maintain that pace by taking over 6.5 corners. They have not passed that figure in any of their last three league games, though they went over 7.5 in each of their previous six.

They are 11/10 to bring up that figure again, having also done so in three of their last four home Premier League games, against Nottingham Forest (eight), Manchester City (11) and West Ham (eight).

Now get Premier League Opta stats and tips for every match this week