Paraguay vs. Australia Match Preview | OneFootball

While the other Group D fixture is merely a necessary exercise, this tie between Paraguay and Australia truly matters. Both teams are sitting on three points from a win over hapless Türkiye, yet still smarting from defeats to the United States. Although four points would probably be enough for both to advance, the mere insinuation that either is playing for a draw would elicit howls of outrage.

Paraguay Riding Momentum

It’s tough to sugarcoat a turd and call it a truffle. This may seem harsh, but check the passport of anyone who claims that Los Guaraníes has been good this tournament. I bet they’re Paraguayan.

The team is among the least accurate, with a dismal 19% of shots on frame (3 of 16). Only Iraq is worse (7%). DR Congo is their equal, and Türkiye not far behind them (21% but with significantly more activity – 13 of 62). Their xG averages 0.40, the second worst among the 48 teams. Despite all the painful statistics, two of their efforts struck the netting, which is why hope still sings loudly among the Albirroja faithful.

Discipline is an issue. Through two games, they share the top sport for most yellow cards received with Haiti (6). And among sports trivia aficionados, Paraguay holds the dubious honor of having received the first red card for the new FIFA law that prohibits covering your mouth when addressing an opponent. Miguel Almíron, the veteran winger, was dismissed in their match against Türkiye after a VAR review caught him red handed. Or hand-over-mouthéd.

So here we are, still talking about Paraguay as “contenders.” Because they are. They could triumph over Australia tomorrow and snatch the second spot, or force a stalemate and ride the last puttering waves of their win over Türkiye into the last 3rd place spot.

Australia Must Prove their Worth

The Socceroos looked majestic in their opening win over Türkiye. Despite only having 28% possession, they put four shots on frame and two of those broke through. Defensively, manager Tony Popovich started a young, inexperienced keeper in Patrick Beach over their usual veteran Mathew Ryan. Beach went on to make eight saves and keep a clean sheet after Türkiye peppered him with over 31 shots on the night.

Popovich also kept his team aggressive, pressuring and harassing the Turks at every opportunity. In fact, their second goal by Connor Metcalfe was the direct consequence of this high press system.

Of course, none of this worked against the Americans. The USMNT simply absorbed the Australian pressure and were able to get two goals in the first half, then defended that lead through an increasingly desperate, but futile, Aussie attack.

Somewhere in the middle is a sweet spot, and Popovich will challenge his selected XI to find it. The good news is that Paraguay’s defense isn’t quite as strong as their previous two opponents. Even better news is their attack is even worse, and heavily reliant on Julio Enciso. Shut him down, and you’ve shut down most of Paraguay’s danger.

Possible Paraguay Starting XI

Manager Gustavo Alfaro has no choice but to field his strongest team, and worry about yellow cards or other things later. After all, if they don’t win it won’t really matter. The asterisk (*) denotes a player with a yellow card.

Orlando GillJuan Cáceres*; Omar Alderete; Gustavo Gómez*; Júnior Alonso*Andrés Cubas; Gustavo Gómez; Maurício; Matías Galarza*Julio Enciso; Isidro Pitta

Possible Australia Starting XI

Tony Popovich will play this one a bit more like chess, knowing a draw secures his side the second-place spot. He’ll be confident, and also conscious that suspensions could hobble their Round of 32, and with four of his back five currently on yellows, it will be nervy indeed. The asterisk (*) denotes a player with a yellow card.

Patrick BeachJacob Italiano*; Alessandro Circati*; Harry Souttar; Cameron Burgess*; J. Bos*Connor Metcalfe; Paul Okon-Engstler; Aiden O’Neill; Nestory IrankundaMohamed Touré

The Hooligan Take

Referee Clément Turpin last officiated England vs. Croatia, in which he called 22 fouls but issued zero cards. Both managers will be hoping for similar leniency, but my gut says he’ll be a bit more ready to use his book.

Australia will win 2 – 0, but at least one defender will miss the following match.