Pep Guardiola got his maths wrong and it could cost Man City in Champions League | OneFootball

Pep Guardiola miscalculated. Ten changes, he later admitted, were “too many” as Manchester City tumbled to defeat to Bayer Leverkusen.

But perhaps he had miscalculated in a different sense, too. City kicked off fourth in the Champions League table, with a chance to go top, if only for a day. By the time the final whistle blew, a different scenario threatened to envelop.

City’s next Champions League game is against Real Madrid. Guardiola brushed away questions about it, arguing their next match against anyone is when Leeds visit on Saturday. Which is true, but a problem lingers in the background.

It is not a formality that City lose in the Bernabeu, but it is a probability. There is no guarantee they will beat Bodo/Glimt on a plastic pitch in the Arctic Circle in January, nor a talented Galatasaray team with the threat of Victor Osimhen at the Etihad the following week. But it is plausible.

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Pep Guardiola had to bring on Erling Haaland (centre left) and Rayan Cherki (right) in an unsuccessful attempt to avoid defeat (Martin Rickett/PA)

Get all three results and City’s reverse to Leverkusen and dropped points in Monaco would mean they would end up on 16 points. Enough, many would suggest. Indeed, it was enough for a top-eight finish last season when Leverkusen themselves, Lille and Aston Villa each got 16 and were able to skip the play-off round that saw City’s elimination. Atalanta, who earned 15 points, finished ninth, were first in the play-off round and then knocked out of it.

And yet there are hints this year that 16 may not suffice; or, if multiple teams end up with 16, that the dotted line will be drawn between them, not beneath them. And that stems, as much as anything else, from the superpowers who have congregated near the top of the table early in the season. Last year brought an incongruous sight as clubs like Villa, Lille and Sporting CP were among the early pacesetters. Their successors have included Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, neither exactly an underdog.

There was an element of the unknown in the first time in a new format, a question if unexpected early mishaps would actually matter. And, as the team who came 15th in the initial phase won the competition, in Paris Saint-Germain, some would say they did not. But an attitude shift from the favourites would indicate otherwise.

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Patrik Schick scored Bayer Leverkusen’s second goal (Nick Potts/PA) (PA Wire)

There has appeared a determination to eliminate the needless setbacks, the equivalents of Real’s loss to Lille last season, or Bayern’s defeats to Aston Villa and Feyenoord, or PSG’s home draw with PSV Eindhoven. If such clubs are going to drop points, it will be to their peers.

Which makes City’s loss at the Etihad to Leverkusen both an anomaly and a sequel to their struggles last year, to the home draw with Feyenoord and the loss at Sporting. They were compounded by more understandable results: a home stalemate with Inter, away defeats to Juventus and PSG. They stumbled into 22nd place.

Now there has been a sense that lessons have been learnt among the elite; including, perhaps, by those who ended up in the play-off round last year, such as Bayern, Real and PSG. Until Leverkusen won in Manchester, City belonged in their company. Perhaps not now.

Even then, though, Guardiola may have relied on last year’s logic, that 16 points would do. Now a different equation appears to have been applied: win six games, get 18 points and it does not matter if the other two matches are lost. Which, as every team faces two pot-one sides, means they can actually lose the two toughest matches. Or, in a different scenario, the two most demanding on the road, providing they are impeccable at home.

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Haaland was among the stars rested by Guardiola (Martin Rickett/PA) (PA Wire)

And in the first four matchdays, it was notable that many of the superpowers did not draw: Real, Bayern, PSG, Arsenal, Inter and Liverpool did not. Arne Slot’s side lost to Galatasaray but none of the other five dropped any points, except to each other. Each was headed for 18, if not more.

Not everyone conforms to the theory. Chelsea’s 2-2 draw against Qarabag felt a needless case of slipping up, but they compensated by beating Barcelona. They could end up with 15, 16, 17 or 19 points but not 18 and, if the eventual number is too few, the trip to Azerbaijan will look costly. Barcelona, second in the league phase last year, cannot get more than 16 and if their February fixture list includes a play-off round, they may rue a draw with Brugge more than defeats to Bayern or Chelsea. There is a chance that they will be joined in action then by City.

Guardiola’s side were the masters of the old group stage. Indeed, they formed one of the arguments for changing the structure: it did seem too formulaic when they won their pool every year, often sufficiently early to allow them to rest and rotate by the end. But in a different format, they are again injecting unpredictability. And just when it appeared they were plotting their path to a top-eight finish, along came Leverkusen. There are dozens of results which will affect the eventual standings but there is a chance they get 16 points, and that it won’t be a sweet 16 for them.