Portsmouth v Arsenal: Why to back Pompey +1.75 on the Asian Handicap | OneFootball

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Is this the year Arsenal win it all?

Mark Stinchombe asked a very good question on this week's Football Only Bettor podcast: why aren't Arsenal favourites for the FA Cup? Mikel Arteta's team are 5.2 market leaders for the Champions League and many have declared them away and gone in the Premier League title race at 1.3.

So in a domestic competition like the FA Cup against rivals they have beaten up very consistently over the last three seasons, there is a valid argument to make that the 6.4 on them winning it a very interesting price to ponder.

They start their journey towards that Wembley showpiece at Fratton Park which has all the ingredients for being a classic cup tie. Portsmouth's famous ground is always a place that believes. It believes in emotion over expectation and the idea that, on the right night, the gap between divisions can be screamed into irrelevance.

That's what Arsenal are walking into in this FA Cup third-round tie. On paper, this is routine. You can get 1.25 on Arsenal winning in 90 minutes on the Betfair Exchange. In reality, it's anything but that simple.

Because the FA Cup has always been about environments as much as ability and few environments relish the role of underdog quite like Portsmouth's old, unforgiving home.

This one will be all about how long Arsenal can keep their composure in a place designed to test it.

The market has made its mind up on this one. Arsenal cruise, Portsmouth compete bravely, end of story.

But the FA Cup has never been that obedient and this particular third-round tie has just enough historical trend, managerial habit and environmental edge to suggest Portsmouth will be far more competitive than the odds imply.

Is mass rotation a dangerous game for Arteta?

Since lifting the FA Cup early in his Arsenal reign, the competition has become a secondary concern for Mikel Arteta. The evidence is clear. Five attempts since, five exits before the fifth round. Not once has Arsenal gone beyond the fourth round in that spell. That's not bad luck, that's prioritisation.

Arteta rotates. He rests key men. He spreads minutes. And while that makes sense in the context of league and European ambitions, it inevitably lowers Arsenal's overall output in these early FA Cup ties.

Arsenal are a monster of a football team capable of incredible things but for all their control they can become blunt - as seen against Liverpool - and for all their organisation they do tend to lack ruthlessness at key points matches.

That opens the door for Portsmouth to stay competitive for longer than the market expects here.

The home side can achieve the frustration game by keeping their shape, making no mistakes and defending with their usual organisation against dangerous attacks.

They've only conceded six goals in their last seven home games, backed up by a strong expected goals against figure of 1.02 per 90. In four of those games they restricted their opposition to less than 0.7 worth of expected goals.

Remarkably, the only team they've lost to at home by two or more goals has been basement boys Sheffield Wednesday, who won 2-0 in September. Current top-six sides like Coventry, Middlesbrough, Watford and Preston all have endured very tight games at Fratton Park where the hosts managed to stay on the right side of the -1 Asian Handicap for punters.

That's where the value lives here against Arsenal, where Pompey are on offer at 1.95 with a +1.75 Asian Handicap start.

Meaning we'll get a full stakes payout if Portsmouth win, draw or lose by one goal but with the insurance of only losing half our stake if they lose by two. For the bet to crash and burn, Arsenal need to win by three or more goals. Something they have done just twice away from home in their last 21 Premier League games.

Arteta's recent history in this competition, combined with his rotation tendencies and a hostile Fratton Park, points toward a game where Portsmouth keep things tight, scrap for everything and make Arsenal work far harder than the odds suggest.