Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back goals for Liverpool and Villa at 7/2 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League game on Saturday of Matchday 10...

Brighton v Leeds Tip - Loads more Sea-goals

Brighton v LeedsSaturday, 15:00

Brighton games are the gift that keeps on giving for goals backers, with six of the Seagulls' last seven featuring Over 2.5. Further back, 19 of their last 24 Premier League games have paid out for Over 2.5 goals backers. That's a 79% strike rate over the course of half a season and we're getting odds close to evens.

Why is this happening? Firstly, Brighton can't defend, having shipped 15 goals in nine games - the fifth worst in the league. This is a long-term issue. They have kept just one clean sheet in a their last 21 games. Going forward, they've scored 14 goals - just three fewer than the division's most. So it's a match made in heaven to back goals in their games.

With 56% of Leeds' games going Over 2.5 goals - including four of their last five - there's nothing to put us off going in again this Saturday.

Burnley v Arsenal Tip - Back a narrow Gunners win

Burnley v ArsenalSaturday, 15:00

It's four straight wins for Arsenal in the Premier League, six in all competitions, and they look unstoppable at the moment having only conceded three goals all season. Burnley are also in form following back-to-back wins, so three points for the Gunners at Turf Moor may not be as easy as 1/4 for the away win suggests.

The Clarets have only conceded two goals in their four home games so far. Goals from open play haven't come easily for Arsenal. Eleven of their 16 goals have come from set-pieces (69%) and only three sides have scored fewer open play goals than Mikel Arteta's side's five.

Sixteen of Arsenal's last 24 away games have finished under 2.5 goals since the beginning of last season (67%) but, with such a big favourite, I'm not comfortable backing that at only 1/1. Instead, let's back Arsenal to win by exactly one goal. It's a bet that's won in three of their four league away games already and it's a big jump in price from 1/4 to 5/2.

Crystal Palace v Brentford Tip - Goals on the menu

Crystal Palace v BrentfordSaturday, 15:00

Both of these sides have beaten the league champions in the past week - Palace in the League Cup on Wednesday and Brentford in the Premier League last Saturday. Bees boss Keith Andrews has put his mark on the side and is getting results after also beating Man Utd and Aston Villa. His team has scored 14 goals in their nine games - only three fewer than the divisions most - whilst they've created 16 expected goals - so they could be in for even more goals.

At the other end, Brentford have got the joint sixth worst defence, shipping 14 goals, which should come as no surprise when they're conceding the joint fourth most shots in the league (13.2 per-game). A whopping 67% of their games have produced Over 2.5 goals and we can see why given their attacking and defensive numbers.

Selhurst Park has been a great place for goals of late with 10 of Palace's last 16 home games rewarding Over 2.5 backers. Given this bet won in both meetings last season, it makes sense to go in again.

Fulham v Wolves Tip - Back Larsen to score in defeat

Fulham v WolvesSaturday, 15:00

Craven Cottage sees a battle between two teams in terrible form as 17th placed Fulham host bottom of the table Wolves. Fulham have lost their last four Premier League games. Wolves are the only side in the division without a win, following two draws and seven defeats. Further back, it's no wins in their last 13 league matches which probably explains the home side's odds-on quote of 4/5. Both of Fulham's wins have come at home this season.

I don't want to back a side that's only three points above the drop at odds-on, so given Wolves are much poorer than their opposition, let's back a much bigger price for a home victory. Wolves' Jørgen Strand Larsen has scored 15 goals in 42 league games for Wolves with his 15 goals spread across 13 matches. Staggeringly, in those 13 games, Wolves have lost six (46%), which is fourth worst record in Premier League history over at least a 13 game sample. We can get 9/1 Strand Larsen scores and loses again.

Nottingham Forest v Man Utd Tip - Mbuemo to cause more Forest damage

Nottingham Forest v Man UtdSaturday, 15:00

Crisis club Nottingham Forest have lost and failed to score in six of their last seven Premier League matches. Last weekend, Sean Dyche's first league game in charge was a 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth and it didn't look inspiring, with Forest managing just eight shots, creating just 0.37 expected goals.

Dyche's appointment concerns me. He lost his job at Everton last season, having only won three of 19 games. In that period, Everton scored just 15 goals and had the second lowest shots-on-target which unsurprisingly came from having created the lowest expected goals.

Manchester United on the other hand have won five of their last seven league games, having been ahead at half-time in all five. I'm not, however, about to forget their inconsistencies of previous years and back them to win a football match at 1/1, particularly given Dyche has only been in-charge for two games.

Instead, lets back a United player in-form in Bryan Mbeumo to score. He's Utd's top scorer this season with five goals - three more than anyone else - which is no surprise when he's averaging their most shots per-game.

Tottenham v Chelsea Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

Tottenham v ChelseaSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Europa League Champions versus the World Champions is Saturday evening's live football offering. Tottenham are enjoying a great start to life under new boss Thomas Frank, sitting third in the Premier League and are unbeaten in the Champions League. Things have been slightly more tricky for Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca this season with a glut of injuries and ill discipline to contend with. But the Blues are only three points behind Spurs and have won two of their three Champions League matches.

It's a really straightforward bet for me here and that's to back goals. Five of Tottenham's last six Premier League games have seen Over 2.5 goals and it's six out of six for Chelsea. This is a match-up between the top two scorers in the league and two of the biggest overachievers defensively.

Liverpool v Aston Villa Tip - Back goals at both ends

Liverpool v Aston VillaSaturday, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

Despite everyone knowing exactly how Brentford were going to play last weekend, Premier League champions Liverpool couldn't cope with it and succumbed to their fourth straight league defeat. They're starting slow and finishing slow as in all four of those defeats they've also been trailing at half-time. It's 8/1 for a repeat at Anfield on Saturday night.

Aston Villa come here in the complete opposite form having won their last four league games which includes impressive victories against both Man City and Tottenham. Given Liverpool's form and the fact the Reds have conceded two or more goals in 11 of their last 16 games excluding the League Cup, Villa can definitely contribute here.

It's only 2/1 the Villan's score two or more goals, but if we add Liverpool to the bet as well, we get 7/2. Despite their issues at the back, only Manchester United have created more expected goals than the hosts.

Now read Mike Norman's Premier League update ahead of Matchday 10

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