Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Former Chelsea man to punish the Blues at [13/2] | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League game on Saturday of Matchday 16...

Chelsea v Everton Tip - Back a Toffees goalscorer

Chelsea v EvertonSaturday, 15:00

Chelsea have now failed to win any of their last four games across all competitions, losing two of them and scoring just three times. It doesn't surprise me given Enzo Maresca's constant chopping and changing of his starting lineup affecting the rhythm of the team. As a result, there's no way I could be entertaining the 4/6 available on the home side, especially having dropped more points than any other side at home this season, against an in-form Everton side with four wins out of five.

One of Everton's key contributors of late has been attacking midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall with three goals in this run and four for the season. He's played predominantly as the number 10 in a 4-2-3-1, allowing him to get into the penalty area and on the end of chances. Indeed, 75% of his shots have come inside the penalty area and six-yard box. He's 13/2 to score anytime and I'm sure he's chomping at the bit against his old club.

Liverpool v Brighton Tip - How do we bet Liverpool games?

Liverpool v BrightonSaturday, 15:00

A plethora of betting options here. If you're in the 'Liverpool are rubbish' camp you can back Brighton to win at 7/2 or perhaps slightly less risky Brighton over 1.5 goals at 17/10.

If on the other hand you believe Liverpool are 'back' after an unbeaten four game run, you could take the 1.73 on a home win given they were 1.40 to win in this fixture a year ago. Again if that's too risky after only five wins in 16 games, maybe backing Dominik Szoboszlai to score anytime at 23/10 is the way to go. He's got three in his last five games and looks to be the replacement penalty taker for Mo Salah.

In my opinion all of them are tempting but I think the best value is Both Teams to Score Two or More Goals at 13/4.

This fixture has a history of goals - the last six meetings have seen 23 goals at an average of 3.83 per-game with no clean sheets - and the odds look a huge increase on your typical goals-based bets. Over 2.5 goals is just 4/9, combining that with both teams to score is only 4/6, and that for me is the crux.

That 4/6 means the score has to be at least 2-1 to either side. Yet if the losing side can manage another goal we increase the odds to 13/4. It looks the way to go when you consider Liverpool are just 1/2 to score Over 1.5 goals and the aforementioned Brighton Over 1.5 goals is just 17/10.

Burnley v Fulham Tip - Best Fulham bet

Burnley v FulhamSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

It's now six defeats in a row for Burnley and 11 defeats in 15 for the season. If it weren't for Wolves they would surely be rooted to the bottom. They are suffering at both ends having conceded at least two goals in six of their last seven matches, whilst creating the fewest chances going forward (8.3 shots per-game) and the second lowest expected goals (0.95 per-game). However, Fulham are already odds-on at 9/10 to win the match so we have to try and work out the best way to get them onside.

I think it's to follow a recent familiar route and to back Fulham to win alongside under 3.5 goals at 6/4. With Burnley struggling to create decent chances, it feels like the game comes down to how many Fulham can score. They sit bottom-half for both goals and expected goals, so if they win it seems unlikely they will run away with it. Collectively this bet has won 11 times out of 16 Burnley defeats and Fulham victories this season (69%).

Arsenal v Wolves Tip - Back the Gunners to get the job done

Arsenal v WolvesSaturday, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

A tough betting heat this. How do we make the team at the top of the league beat the team at the bottom of the league pay at 1/8? Hopefully by being a little patient.

Wolves have now lost their last eight Premier League matches and 13 of 15 for the season. New manager Rob Edwards has come in and overseen four defeats where they've scored just one goal. However, it has been noticeable that in the last five games Wolves have managed to get to half-time unscathed before going on to lose and I'm wondering if this is the angle to play in a hectic Arsenal schedule.

A half-time draw is only 2/1 yet we can get 17/5 that Arsenal go on and win from there, a significant jump from their 1/8 price. This will be the Gunners seventh game in the last 20 days and they will play another four games after this one with a mounting injury table. It could be the case that Arsenal take their time to get the job done like the last time these two met.

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