Premier League Tips: Matchday 18 best bets involving Man Utd and Chelsea | OneFootball

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Man Utd v Newcastle: Goals, goals, goals

Manchester United v NewcastleFriday 26 December, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Boxing Day's sole Premier League showdown should provide plenty of entertainment despite significant absentees on both sides. Man Utd will be missing Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo, Bryan Mbuemo and Matthijs de Ligt, whilst Newcastle arrive with only three senior defenders available: Lewis Hall, Fabian Schar and Malick Thiaw.

Man Utd have performed reasonably well of late without getting the results their performances deserved. Six goals conceded across their last two tussles and a solitary Premier League shutout proving the Red Devils' downfall - it's now just six clean sheets in 44 EPL outings under Ruben Amorim and only four in 21 league dates at Old Trafford.

Newcastle's defensive data is also far from inspiring. The Magpies have shipped 17 goals across their last 10 matches, conceding multiple strikes in half of those fixtures, failing to silence any of their opponents during that same sample. However, Eddie Howe's outfit have also provided plenty of their own punch in the final-third.

Goals therefore look the most obvious angle of attack here. Man Utd's league games are avergaing 3.47 goals with 12 of 17 encounters seeing Over 2.5 Goals and 13 of those fixtures featuring both sides scoring. Newcastle are 11 from 17 in both metrics, though 16 of their most recent 20 across all competitions have produced at least three strikes.

Brentford v Bournemouth: Entertainment expected

Brentford v BournemouthSaturday 27 December, 15:00

The Premier League is avergaing 2.84 goals per-game with 57% of fixtures seeing Over 2.5 Goals - that percentage hit-rate implies blanket odds around the 3/4 (1.75) mark on an average top-flight game, yet we're being offered a bigger price on Over 2.5 Goals despite Brentford and Bournemouth's overwhelming goal records.

Five of the Bees' eight games at the Gtech have seen four goals or more with both sides scoring on six occasions. Keith Andrews' crew have notched multiple goals themselves in five of those eight, though the hosts have also managed only three clean sheets across the campaign, two of which were earned away at bottom-three opposition.

Meanwhile, we saw the best and worst of Bournemouth during their recent frantic 4-4 draw at Man Utd, a match that has continued a remarkable glut of goal-heavy away games for the Cherries - the visitors have seen a huge 4.75 goals per-game on their travels with 7/8 going Over 3.5 with three of those fixtures even producing 6+ goals.

If we drill into both teams' respective home/away data since the start of last season, the case for goals becomes even stronger. Brentford have kept just two clean sheets in 27 home league games with 74% of those showdowns seeing BTTS bank, 63% have covered the Over 2.5 mark with 59% hitting 4+ goals with 3.70 goals per-game overall.

Bournemouth have netted in 24 of 27 road trips during that same period, keeping just three shutouts - that's led to a 78% hit-rate for Both Teams To Score backers, 81% landing in the Over 2.5 column and 63% going Over 3.5 with 3.81 goals per-game on average. Despite those overwhelming long-term trends, Over 2.5 Goals is 1.78.

Chelsea v Aston Villa: Long-range specialists appeal

Chelsea v Aston VillaSaturday 27 December, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa have made it a sensational 10 wins on the spin and 16 victories in 18 across all competitions going further go. It's an outrageous run that's brought Unai Emery's men to within three points of the Premier League summit, made even more remarkable considering the Villains were goalless in their first four EPL fixtures this season.

A trip to Stamford Bridge is bound to test their credentials on Saturday, and I'm happy leaving the main markets alone and instead focusing on two of the sharpest shooters on the field with Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers each to have a shot on-target from outside the box paying an interesting 9/1 on the Sportsbook's Match Stat Specials.

Rogers is in the form of his life. His two goals against Man Utd last weekend were fabulous; gaining possession, cutting inside and then curling shots home to make it six league goals scored from outside the penalty area in his last 10 appearances. He's now avergaing 0.47 shots on-target from outside the box per-90 in the EPL this season.

Cole Palmer only recently returned from injury but has already tried his luck from distance in two of his last three starts, one of which hit the target. In limited minutes this season, the England international is averaging 1.22 shots from outside the box per-90, highlighting his threat with the Blues marksman also a threat from set-pieces.