Ranking all 24 EFL League One clubs by how likely they are to get promoted | OneFootball

FLW assesses how likely all the clubs in the upcoming third-tier campaign are to be promoted

The lineup for the 2026/27 League One campaign is shaping up to be amongst the most competitive it's been in quite some time.

The third tier is set to have Leicester City in it for just the second time in the club's history, after their double relegation, a decade on from becoming Premier League Champions.

Alongside Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford United, who were also relegated from the Championship, there'll be a plethora of other sides keen to mount a title charge after coming up short last season.

Additionally, as is usually the case anyway, there'll be optimism surrounding some of this past season's mid-table sides about their chances to perhaps squeeze into the top six. Therefore, placing these teams into a 1-24 order regarding their promotion chances next season is incredibly difficult.

But we at Football League World have done our best. With around two months remaining until a ball is kicked in League One, here's each side's promotion chances ranked from lowest to highest.

24 ? ? Bromley

Action Images

The 2026/27 campaign is just the third ever EFL season in Bromley's history, and they're set to begin it in League One. Unfortunately, their rapid rise may result in a rather drastic fall next year.

The majority of the heroes who got Andy Woodman's side to where they are now were National League players two seasons ago, and will be gearing up for potential wage hikes that the Ravens may feel go further than they're willing to go.

We've already seen that captain Jude Arthurs is set to depart Hayes Lane this summer for free, and others may join him, which could lead to a larger recruitment drive than Bromley perhaps would have been expecting.

Regardless of who they have, though, with this being the highest that the club has reached, their focus primarily will be on staying there, rather than mounting a promotion charge.

23 ? ? AFC Wimbledon

It's always a success when a fan-owned side survives in League One, given the budgets that they're having to compete with, and AFC Wimbledon did just that in their first year back after three years away last term.

Johnnie Jackson's side is still expected to have amongst the lowest budgets in the third tier next season, though, and after struggling in large parts towards the tail end of the past season, they'll need to stop that rot and begin next term on the front foot.

Their backs will be against the wall once more, and the focus will be on ensuring League One football for another year, rather than pushing towards the Championship.

22 ? ? Cambridge United

Cambridge United were impenetrable in defence en route to an immediate promotion back to the third tier this past season, conceding just 33 times in their 46 games, 11 fewer than Oldham Athletic, who were runners-up in the defensive ranks.

While that forms a good base to build on, Neil Harris will know that his side can't just rely on that to remain in the division. AFC Wimbledon, the best defence in the 2024/25 League Two season, conceded 37 more goals this past year.

But the former Millwall boss will have the know-how to keep Cambridge up, which will be their primary goal, rather than promotion, like the two sides below them.

21 ? ? Burton Albion

"League One again, ole, ole" was the cry at the Pirelli Stadium when Burton Albion drew with Exeter City in the penultimate game of the campaign to secure their third-tier status for another year.

Ultimately, that doesn't sound like a team that has promotion back to the Championship at the forefront of their minds, and to be fair, with the Brewers' last few seasons seeing them complete great escapes, just being safe by the final day is considered a successful year now.

Talisman Jake Beesley has left to join Bradford City, which will be a huge blow and will make survival a little harder once again, but we've seen in the past that, when Gary Bowyer's side fixates on just finishing 20th or above, they can achieve it.

20 ? ? Notts County

Notts County are heading into their first League One campaign since the 2014/15 term, and are doing so with plenty of backing behind them, both in the stands and at board level.

Martin Paterson's side averaged over 10,000 per game at Meadow Lane last season, and that number's likely to increase back in the third tier. That will automatically have them in the top 10, and that will push them on towards some vital points as they look to consolidate themselves in the division.

But, with their position as a bit of a sleeping giant, maybe they'll have some incredibly optimistic dreams of perhaps following in Bradford's footsteps and perhaps gatecrashing a top-six race in their first season back after many years away.

19 ? ? Doncaster Rovers

It was job done for Doncaster Rovers in their first season back in the third tier after winning League Two in the 2024/25 campaign, and, according to the underlying numbers, Grant McCann's side should have been amongst the play-off charge last year, too.

Even with all that in mind, though, the quality of the third tier this upcoming season makes it difficult to outline Donny as a potential promotion hopeful. There's the potential for that underperformance to continue, or even for things to go the other way, and the South Yorkshire side suffer a bit of a second-season hangover and perform worse.

As mentioned in the intro, there are plenty of sides who may fancy their chances for a top six finish at least — Doncaster are the likeliest to be happy with being safe out of all of those.

18 ? ? Peterborough United

Peterborough United underwent a real transitional year last season, and with a full year of Luke Williams ahead, there'll be some hope that the former Swansea City boss can propel them back to the Championship.

But, we saw at times last year that, while Williams' brand of football can lead to Posh brushing aside and dominating teams, it can also lead to a real dry spell of wins.

Their only victory in the final 15 games of the season was against a bad Rotherham United team. In true Peterborough fashion, they won 5-0.

There are a few exciting youngsters who will have an extra year under their belts at the London Stadium, but in terms of a real promotion run, that may be a step too far for Posh.

17 ? ? Barnsley

Barnsley have been tipped by some critics to really struggle next season, given their terrible defensive record and the possibility that one of their few saving graces, David McGoldrick, may be leaving, too.

But, even if the 39-year-old frontman departs, the Tykes will still head into the season with expectations of promotion, as that's been their level for quite some time.

Daniel Stendel is back at the helm, who was the last person to lead them to the Championship back in 2019 with a club-record 91 points and an unbeaten home campaign at Oakwell.

He likely won't be producing the same results, but he'll still likely raise the level of some of the underperformers from the recent campaign. If he gets backed, perhaps they could make a play-off push, but right now, it doesn't look likely.

16 ? ? Wigan Athletic

Like Barnsley, Wigan Athletic's recent history in League One has seen them win the title three times in the past decade. Things are different now, but with Gary Caldwell in charge, there's some quiet optimism.

The Scottish head coach has a strong connection with Wigan, having played there for five years, alongside another year in the dugout, which saw them lift the third-tier title.

Before his return, he won plenty of plaudits at Exeter for orchestrating their League One survivals, which were highly regarded as overachieving seasons.

So, even if Caldwell doesn't have the strongest squad at the Brick Community Stadium, he can still lift the players' levels to comfortably finish mid-table, and if he does receive some backing, he could possibly lead the Tics even higher.

15 ? ? Leyton Orient

Putting it plainly, Leyton Orient have to be better next season after a disastrous campaign that almost resulted in their relegation back to League Two, 12 months on from making the play-off final.

With Dom Ballard still, as of writing, at the club, alongside Richie Wellens in the dugout, there are some pretty strong foundations there. The O's just need to get it right in the other positions on the pitch, like they did ahead of that 2024/25 campaign.

The passionate boss stated that this past season was a waste of his time, and you can bet that he won't stand by and let it happen again, which can only be a good thing for those at Brisbane Road.