Ranking the 7 EFL League Two managers most likely to be sacked by Christmas | OneFootball

Football League World looks at who may not last for half of the upcoming season in the fourth tier

The 2026/27 campaign gets underway in just over a month, and in League Two, there'll be several sides looking to have a positive year, which could result in promotion.

Sides across the fourth tier are already making a splash in the transfer market (Bristol Rovers have signed seven players as of writing!), and that helps build anticipation and intrigue ahead of the curtain-raisers on August 15.

​​​​​​But if those expectations aren't met, the pressure starts to mount on those in the dugout. There were 11 managerial casualties in League Two last season — but three of those concerned relegated Barrow and only four happened before Christmas.

Therefore, there aren't many erratic clubs in the division when it comes to changing a manager at the earliest possible moment, at least not anymore, but Football League World have looked at who out of those currently in the post are less likely to last until 2027 compared to their peers.

7 ? ? Danny Cowley - Colchester United

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There's no denying the level of experience of Danny Cowley in the lower leagues of the EFL. He's won League Two before with Lincoln City and has five Manager of the Month awards in the division, too.

Colchester United may feel like they have the best man possible for the job, but in the two-and-a-half years he's been in the post at the JobServe Community Stadium, he's done well to pull them away from near-relegation, but he hasn't exactly taken them close to getting back into League One.

After a 2025/26 campaign which saw them unable to kick on from their 10th-placed finish in his first full year in charge, perhaps a poor start to this season could see Colchester move away from Cowley for someone with fresh ideas. With Micah Mbick and Kyreece Lisbie no longer at the club, a slow start could be on the cards.

It's not to say that Cowley should be nailed on to be sacked, but with several clubs looking secure with their managers at the moment, he finds himself at the foot of the list.

6 ? ? Chris Hogg - Northampton Town

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Chris Hogg has a real task on his hands this season in taking a Northampton Town side who picked up just two points in their final 15 League One games and stabilising them in the division below — something which is difficult even with a strong side coming down.

The Cobblers have already had to deal with losing numerous top performers from their basement-finishing side last season, with Cameron McGeehan and Nesta Guinness-Walker already finding new clubs, plus several players being released from their contracts, too.

A club with a losing culture in 2026, paired with a largely new squad and a man who is in his first main senior dugout role, could be a recipe for disaster, and if Northampton keep sliding, Hogg could find himself out the door.

5 ? ? Matt Lawlor - Fleetwood Town

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After twice being caretaker boss, Matt Lawlor was appointed interim Fleetwood Town head coach when Pete Wild was sacked, and six wins and nine draws in his 20 games in charge saw him handed the permanent role.

Fleetwood are in a strange position currently, though. Not long ago, they were play-off semi-finalists in League One, but have now just come off the back of their second successive lower mid-table finish in the fourth tier following relegation.

There's still that desire to get back into the third tier, but it hasn't worked out, and each manager hasn't been given much more than a year to get them there. Charlie Adam and Wild were dismissed midway through each of the last two campaigns, respectively, and the same could happen to Lawlor if he doesn't have a positive start.

4 ? ? Darrell Clarke - Tranmere Rovers

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It's been a truly difficult 2026 at Tranmere Rovers, as takeover delays and fan tension haven't reflected well on the field. Like Northampton, Rovers had a terrible end to last season, winning just three times in the calendar year and once in the final 15 games.

With both York City and Rochdale expected to compete at the top end of the table this season, there'll be a real onus on Tranmere to have a good year, or else they face falling out of the EFL altogether.

At the helm is Darrell Clarke, who does have experience managing at the level above, but was sacked from Bristol Rovers last season after losing 10 straight league games.

For a club that became used to losing towards the back end of last term, that may not result in the greatest of starts, and Clarke could find himself out of a job.

3 ? ? Lee Bell - Crewe Alexandra

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Lee Bell is one of the longest-serving managers in the EFL currently, with him set to celebrate four years in charge of Crewe Alexandra in November.

However, Crewe are slowly starting to slip into becoming a League Two regular, with this being their fifth straight campaign at the level following yet another mid-table finish. This is the longest they've spent in the fourth tier since the 1980s.

While the Alex have suffered a few relegations in the current century, they've always been offset by successes in League Two, but after reaching the play-off final in 2024, things have been quite mediocre at Gresty Road.

Bell has a long-standing relationship with the club, all the way from his time as a player, but if this continues, it may be time for the two to part ways.

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Swindon Town's collapse towards the end of last season was rather monumental, as the Robins went from being in the automatic promotion places in late February to missing out on the play-offs altogether.

Ian Holloway is a managerial icon, but there's no doubt that a fall that big has put the pressure on him at the start of this season. Swindon have shown themselves to be capable of battling at the top of the league, and if they don't, the 63-year-old could be in trouble.

With Aaron Drinan still leading the line, the Robins have a chance to be in a play-off battle, so if they're not, then the finger may get pointed at the dugout pretty early.

1 ? ? Colin Kazim-Richards - Crawley Town

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Colin Kazim-Richards did enough last season at Crawley Town to keep them in the division, with his two wins out of the final seven games of the campaign amounting to a quarter of the victories across the entire campaign.

Now, though, the focus will be on the 39-year-old to take the Red Devils back up towards the top of the division, and he's been backed in the transfer market thus far to allow that to happen.

The arrival of Jude Arthurs, who captained Bromley to the title last season, is one of the biggest signings in the division thus far. Priestley Farquharson scored five times from centre-back at Walsall, and Stephen Duke-McKenna showed flashes of quality at Harrogate Town.

It's a strong start and one that gives an indication that the higher-ups at the Broadfield Stadium don't want another relegation battle next season. If Kazim-Richards proves to be out of his depth, they may be the more ruthless of their peers to make a change.