Reality check for Newcastle United fans | OneFootball

Newcastle United fans are not liking the fact that they are seeing their team lose football matches.

Nothing strange about that.

All fanbases are the same, losing games isn’t something you can ever get used to.

This is especially so if you have become more used to seeing your team regularly win, rarely get beat.

Eight games played so far this season and Newcastle United fans have seen their team lose three of them already.

I think it always causes far more pain and frustration when this is happening at St James’ Park.

All three defeats have indeed been at home.

We are all gutted by this, especially when it is in front of around 50,000 or so Newcastle United fans who have paid for the privilege, invested their time and money to be there in person. Not that I am diminishing the pain either of the many more NUFC supporters not at the actual game.

I do though think that some Newcastle United fans need a reality check.

I am not saying that we should ever accept it as inevitable that Newcastle will lose to any opposition. However, when analysing things after any defeat(s), you do have to factor in the quality, or lack of it, of the opposition.

As well as all the other factors (Isak, late signings, injuries, suspensions, concussions…) that have clearly impacted the preparations for the new season and then the matches that have followed, you have to look at the eight teams Newcastle United have played.

Never did it look like across the course of the Villa, Bradford, Wolves, Bournemouth and Leeds matches, that Newcastle were going to lose any of those games. Eddie Howe’s side deservedly won two of them and played goalless draws in the other three, a bit more luck, better finishing and decisions from match officials going in our favour, I think it could/should have been four wins and a draw instead. The fact is that in the three drawn matches, Newcastle were massively impacted on the selection options Eddie Howe had, compared to the squad we now have (AND once they are all/mostly available). The options available against Wolves were a little better and we should have won by two or three that day, not just the one.

As for the three defeats.

These have been to Liverpool, Barcelona and Arsenal.

All three by single goal margins.

Newcastle the better team against Liverpool when equal numbers and a man down but losing to a goal in the tenth minute of added time.

United having the chances to lead and restricting Barcelona to no efforts on target until the second half when somebody who gets paid £20m a year/£400,000 a week (about the same as Newcastle’s three best players combined) decides to turn up that day (night) and scores a cracking header and then worldie from distance that goes in off the bar.

Before then yesterday, Newcastle leading for most of the game and then conceding with six minutes to go, a header that went in off the post, then Arsenal scoring the winning in the sixth minute of added time.

In another universe those performances/small margins could have seen instead three draws, or even three wins.

In reality, I think Newcastle’s overall performances deserved a win (v Liverpool), a draw (v Barcelona) and a defeat (v Arsenal).

A reality check as well on top of that, these three clubs are currently rated the best three in Europe the three most likely to win the Champions League this season.

The way some Newcastle United fans go on, it is inexplicable why NUFC could possibly lose to these teams.

Reality is that all three have had numerous years of growing their teams/clubs whilst Newcastle had Mike Ashley for a decade and a half.

They have hugely successful academies and have operated as top clubs for ages.

Barcelona are in the Champions League every season, Arsenal the last 26 years have been in the Champions League 21 times and the other five in the Europa League.

Liverpool (and Barcelona) an even bigger European story than Arsenal AND it is over sixty years since they finished lower than eighth in the English top tier.

In the most recent Deloitte football rich list published in January 2025, Newcastle United were a very respectable 15th place.

However…

Newcastle United were 15th with total turnover (revenues – commercial, matchday, TV) of €371.7m (approx £324.6m at today’s exchange rate.

Whilst Barcelona were sixth highest with €760.3m, Arsenal €716.5m, Liverpool €714.7m.

This was for a season (2023/24) as well when Newcastle United were in the Champions League for the first time in over two decades.

Fair to say that when we find out the figures for 2024/25 in January 2026, when Deloitte bring out their new football rich list, the gap will have grown further between these three clubs and Newcastle United. United qualified for the Champions League, finished fifth in the Premier League and won the League Cup. However, Liverpool and Arsenal won their domestic leagues, Arsenal finished second AND all three reached the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Basically, these three clubs that Newcastle United have lost to this season, all have a turnover around double Newcastle United’s and one of the very biggest advantages is the wage bills they can afford. Especially when it comes to the UEFA rules on Financial Fair Play, Newcastle United are at a massive disadvantage. As mentioned above, £20m a year wages Marcus Rashford was the difference in that game against Barcelona.

This has been such a tough home schedule to start the season, if for example NUFC had played say Villa and Leeds at St James’ Park in the Premier League and any of our home Champions League opponents other than Barcelona, then I think it would have been three wins in those games instead.

When you are playing the very best teams, even at home, the likes of Newcastle United have to be at their very best as a team, with pretty much all of their best individuals available, to realistically compete. Unless the elite opposition have a very below par performance.

The three home wins against Arsenal that preceded Sunday, are perfect examples of that. In all three games the NUFC players were really at it and performing at a very high level as a team against the Gunners. The midfield and the defending as a team was superb, restricting Arsenal to minimal clear chances in all of that trio of matches. Sunday was different, in that Arsenal were far better than they had been in those previous matches and Newcastle’s midfield wasn’t able to properly impose themselves and we allowed Arteta’s team far too many corners and other set-pieces to be expecting to not concede, as well as NUFC as a team getting cut open in open play as well, relying on Nick Pope making a number of outstanding saves.

When it comes to playing these kind of elite teams, of the level of Barcelona, Arsenal, Liverpool.

I have had a look at the fixture list and in the next 24 games that are scheduled, Newcastle play only one opponent (home or away) that is of that kind of elite level, which is Man City at home in the Premier League on 22 November 2025. The next elite opponent is PSG away on 28 January 2026. Later than that are the other three Premier League games against Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal.

This isn’t to say that Newcastle United don’t have any difficult matches coming up, or that we won’t lose any more games.

However, playing against the other teams, both in the Champions League and in domestic competitions, is nowhere near the same level, in my opinion. Whether that be Spurs, Chelsea, Bayer Leverkusen, Marseille and so on.

A combination of a stronger squad than last season and more winnable games across the coming months, will see Newcastle United back to winning on a regular basis.