Report: Could a Non Old Firm Side Finally Mount an SPL Title Challenge in 2025 | OneFootball

SPL Non Old Firm Title Challenge: How Realistic is it in 2025?

It has been four decades since Sir Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen lifted the Scottish top-flight trophy in 1985. Since then, the SPL has been almost exclusively defined by the Old Firm stranglehold. Yet with Celtic appearing vulnerable and Rangers stumbling through their worst league start since 1983, questions are surfacing about whether a non Old Firm club could finally mount a serious title challenge.

Celtic may have secured a domestic treble only months ago, but discontent lingers. Their supporters voiced frustration at a quiet transfer window that ended with European elimination and a goalless derby with Rangers. Meanwhile, Russell Martin’s side have struggled under new ownership, winning just three of their first eleven matches. Against this backdrop, clubs outside Glasgow sense an opportunity rarely seen in Scottish football.

Hearts and Bloom’s Ambitions

The most intriguing storyline comes from Edinburgh. Tony Bloom, the Brighton & Hove Albion owner who recently took a 29% stake in Hearts, made headlines when he declared the Tynecastle club have a “very good chance of at least being second” this season. His influence extends beyond investment, with the use of Jamestown Analytics, a system credited with aiding Union Saint-Gilloise’s rise to the Belgian title last year.

While some dismissed Bloom’s remarks, recent evidence suggests they were not so far-fetched. Celtic and Rangers served up a dismal Old Firm draw after humiliating European exits, leaving many to question their dominance. Bloom’s bullish stance resonated further when former Hearts manager Robbie Neilson added: “At the start of the season, I said it was probably going to be a one-horse race. Now I think it’s potentially a two, maybe even a three, if you look at what Hearts have done.”

The arrival of Derek McInnes has reinforced that ambition. His experience of running Celtic close with Aberdeen between 2014 and 2018 offers credibility, and with ten new recruits under the Jamestown model, Hearts have looked competitive. Their ability to secure late goals and comebacks has delivered ten points from four games, placing them level with Celtic at the top. With a trip to Ibrox on the horizon, a win there would give their SPL non Old Firm title challenge serious momentum.

Hibs’ Continuity and Progress

Across the city, Hibernian are another club entertaining lofty ambitions. David Gray’s side may sit five points adrift with a game in hand, but their trajectory over the past year suggests they should not be overlooked.

European competition has complicated their domestic start, with tough ties against Midtjylland, Partizan Belgrade and Legia Warsaw testing their squad. Yet avoiding defeat in three away legs against such opponents highlights their resilience. Crucially, Hibs have kept continuity, retaining most of their best players and bolstering midfield with Josh Mulligan, Jamie McGrath and Miguel Chaiwa.

Their rise from bottom of the table last November to third by the end of the season was remarkable. In their last 28 league matches, they have lost only three times. With a points-per-game rate that projects to 76 over a 38-match campaign, they could rival Rangers’ output from last season. However, chasing Celtic’s 92-point benchmark underlines the magnitude of the challenge. For Hibs, maintaining such consistency across a full season remains the ultimate test if they want to transform from European qualifiers to genuine SPL title challengers.

Photo: IMAGO

Historical Patterns and Financial Divide

While optimism is understandable, history offers a sobering perspective. The gap between second and third in the SPL has averaged 22 points over the last five years. Even in campaigns where Rangers faltered, they still finished far ahead of the chasing pack.

This divide is rooted in finances. Despite their European failures, Celtic and Rangers accounted for 86% of all Premiership transfer spending this summer, according to Transfermarkt. The record outlays by Hearts and Hibs pale in comparison, underlining the structural imbalance.

As a result, any non Old Firm side must surpass their historical records. Hearts would need to achieve around 74 points, Hibs 67, just to position themselves as potential runners-up. For context, Rangers endured 16 winless matches last season under Barry Ferguson’s interim stewardship, yet still finished 17 points ahead of Hibs.

Aberdeen, meanwhile, sit bottom after three defeats, highlighting how difficult it remains for clubs outside Glasgow to turn potential into a sustained SPL non Old Firm title challenge.

Could 2025 Break the Cycle?

The notion of a title race without Celtic or Rangers at its heart feels enticing, and this season presents more hope than most. With both giants faltering, the Edinburgh clubs sense their best opportunity in years. Hearts have analytics, investment and a seasoned coach. Hibs bring continuity, form and a balanced squad.

Yet the sheer weight of history, coupled with the financial gulf, continues to make an SPL non Old Firm title challenge an enormous task. Bloom’s talk of “challenging the establishment” may resonate with fans tired of Glasgow dominance, but turning that into reality will require consistency on a scale rarely seen outside the Old Firm.

For now, the evidence suggests Hearts and Hibs could narrow the gap and push the league into more competitive territory. But whether they can truly topple Celtic or Rangers remains a question that will define this season.