Spain v France: Back goals in Nations League semi-final | OneFootball

Our experts recommends backing goals in Spain v France on Thursday

The attacks should be on top when Spain face France in the UEFA Nations League semi-final on Thursday night, writes James Eastham...

Spain vs FranceThursday 5 June, 19:45Live on Amazon Prime

A re-run of Euro 2024 last four clash

Spain are clear favourites to win when they take on France in a re-run of last summer's Euro 2024 semi-final in the UEFA Nations League semi-final in Stuttgart on Thursday night.

On Betfair's Exchange, Spain are 2.52 to win in 90 minutes, while France are 3.25 to do so, and The Draw is 3.3. In the To Qualify market, Spain are trading at 1.71 at the time of writing, while France are closer to 2.3 to go through.

Is Spain's favouritism justified? Based on the degree to which they were the better side in that Euro 2024 semi-final in Munich nearly 12 months ago, yes. Spain comfortably outplayed les Bleus on that occasion, and deservedly went through.

Is there any strong evidence that France have closed the gap on Spain since that last-four defeat? There is some evidence, but how strong it is is open to debate.

Kylian Mbappe suffered a wretched Euro 2024 tournament, and should be in better shape this week. He has enjoyed a highly successful first season at Real Madrid from a personal point of view, finishing as La Liga's top scorer. He will relish the opportunity to put on a show against his adopted homeland.

The attacking support cast surrounding Mbappe has undoubtedly got better for France over the past 12 months as well. While Antoine Griezmann failed to impress in Germany last summer - and subsequently retired from international football - the France attack now looks more youthful, more dynamic, and more energetic.

Michael Olise has impressed since breaking into the senior squad this season. Desire Doue heads into this game on the back of his dazzling man of the match performance for PSG in the Champions League final last weekend. And Lyon's Rayan Cherki has been called into the squad for the first time for this game, having excelled for France's U21s.

So, yes, France ought to be more competitive this time around, although Spain's superior fluency, teamwork and experience means we believe they are deserved favourites.

The price on Luis de la Fuente's players is a little too short to lure us in, however. For that reason, we prefer to look elsewhere for our headline selection on the game.

Big defensive absences for France

In the Under/Over 2.5 Goals market, Unders is the clear favourite. It is trading at 1.77 on Betfair's Exchange, while Overs is the outsider of the two at 2.22.

This is a surprise, for several reasons. The first is that, as we saw in that Euro 2024 semi-final last summer, these two sides are able to break the Over 2.5 Goals barrier when they go head-to-head. That game finished 2-1, with all three goals coming in the first-half. The final scoreline could easily have contained more goals.

The second and far more pertinent reason is that France will almost certainly have to be at their attacking best if they want to go through. That is because they have very poor team news in defence: Jules Kounde, William Saliba, and Dayot Upamecano are all ruled out.

Manager Didier Deschamps will have to field a patched-up back four, with the likes of Benjamin Pavard and Lucas Hernandez - back-up players these days - contenders to start. Malo Gusto, Loic Bade, and Clement Lenglet have been recalled, while Pierre Kalulu has earned a first call-up.

Spain would have been confident of breaching France's back line anyway, but France's team news makes it all the more likely that Spain will score at least once, and probably more than once.

Expect attacking play and goals

France have the potential to be as dangerous as Spain in the final third. As well as Mbappe, Olise, Doue, and Cherki, Bradley Barcola is in the squad and has looked sharp in recent weeks, while Ousmane Dembele heads into the game freshly crowned as 2024-25's Champions League player of the season.

All things considered, we would rather be on Over 2.5 Goals than Under 2.5 Goals, and the odds-against price on the game having three or more goals in normal time makes this selection even more appealing.

Now read our Club World Cup tips here!

Recommended bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.22

Max Liu's Betfair Match Up

Back Mbappe to score more than Yamal

For this Match Up we are going to use Betfair Build Ups to add a bit of El Clasico spice to what is already likely to be a lively contest by pitting a Real Madrid star against Barcelona's latest young world-beater.

Real Madrid were pipped to the La Liga title by Barcelona in Kylian Mbappe's first season with Los Blancos but the Frenchman still scored 31 goals in 34 matches to win the division's golden boot. That is an eye-wateringly good return for a debut season in a new league.

You could not miss Lamine Yamal in 2024/25 as he wowed fans with his brilliance for Barcelona in La Liga and the Champions League. He only scored nine and five in those respective competitions, however, and suffered an injury towards the end of the season that was concerning for fans of the Catalan giants.

In five appearances for Spain in this competition Yamal has managed one goal whereas Mbappe is yet to score in his four. It shouldn't be long before the Frenchman ends that drought though and lining up against a La Liga rival could get the best out of him. When Barcelona beat Madrid in El Clasico a month ago, Yamal scored one while Mbappe hit a hat-trick. We are going to back Mbappe to outscore the Spaniard again tonight.