Sunderland v Burnley: Back a Black Cats win at 11/10 on Monday night | OneFootball

Sunderland v BurnleyMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Black Cats purring but Clarets bleeding

Sitting just outside of the top 10 going into Matchday 24, just four points adrift of a Champions League qualifying slot, Sunderland have been brilliant since returning to the top flight.

I'll hold my hands up. When they finished 24 points behind Leeds and Burnley in last season's Championship table, and then secured promotion via a last-gasp winner in the play-off final, I had them down as bankers to be relegated from the Premier League this season.

Not that I would ever have backed them when the Betfair Sportsbook opened up at 2/9 in early June. By the time the season commenced Sunderland had drifted out to 7/20 in the Relegation market because of their summer transfer activity, and now, after their excellent campaign to date, Regis Le Bris' men can be backed at 40/1 to go down.

The Black Cats will probably only need a few more wins to guarantee Premier League football next season, and given their home form you wouldn't back against one of those wins coming at home to Burnley on Monday night.

The Clarets were also among the favourites to be relegated before a ball was kicked this term, but unlike Sunderland, their relegation odds just got shorter and they started the season as red hot favourites at 1/4 to go down. After a disastrous campaign to date Scott Parker's men are now impossible to back at 1/500, and their away form hardly inspires confidence ahead of their trip to the Stadium of Light.

Impossible to oppose the home win

It's that home form v away form that is crucial to my thinking ahead of this game. How can you back a team that sits 19th in the away table with a record of W1-D2-L8, away to a team that is undefeated at home?

You just can't is my opinion. And especially not when you consider that Burnley's only away win this season was a narrow victory at rock-bottom Wolves, a team that is on course to be, statistically, the worst Premier League team ever. It's also worth pointing out that Parker's men are currently on a run of 14 league games without a win.

Going into this weekend's round of fixtures Sunderland sat fifth in the home table. From their 11 games played in front of their own fans they have a record of W6-D5-L0, and they've conceded just nine goals. They sat above the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United and Newcastle in that home table, and the top three teams in the Premier League - Arsenal, Man City and Aston Villa - have all been up to Wearside and failed to win.

So I'll repeat the question. How can you back Burnley in the Match Odds market given all of the above? For me, you simply can't, but there will be people out there willing to take a chance on the Clarets at 4/1 following their 1-1 draw at Liverpool in their last away game.

And we should also mention that the Black Cats will once again be without their midfield rock, Granit Xhaka, for this game, and without him last weekend Sunderland put in one of their worst performances of the season in losing at lowly West Ham.

But I'll go back to that home form. Le Bris' men are rock solid at the Stadium of Light and that makes a home win the logical selection at 3/4, though I'm happy to enhance those odds slightly by backing a home win another way.

Below you can see a chart showing the percentage chance for each outcome using the Betfair Exchange Match Odds market.

Low goals and shots count point the way

Like almost every other team this season, Sunderland were involved in a frantic clash with Bournemouth, winning 3-2 - the Cherries have the most goals, for and against combined, in the Premier League - and it's not really a negative that they conceded two to league leaders Arsenal in a 2-2 draw, but all of the Black Cats' other 10 home games this season (all competitions) have resulted in under 3.5 goals being scored.

They've conceded just nine league goals at the Stadium of Light, while both themselves (24) and Burnley (25) are among the lowest-scoring teams in the division this term. And if you check any Premier League shots tables, you'll notice that both these teams - along with Wolves - occupy the bottom three places for shots per game (both average under 10).

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