Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets | OneFootball

Sweden return to the World Cup stage after missing Qatar 2022, Tunisia arrive having never passed the group phase in six attempts, and Group F’s outcome could hinge on this very match in Monterrey…

Sweden vs Tunisia kicks off at 20:00 local time (UTC-6) on Sunday 14 June 2026 at the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey (Guadalupe), Mexico. It is Matchday 4 of Group F, with both sides knowing that a strong result here could prove decisive in the race to qualify for the knockout rounds. UK viewers can catch the action live on ITV and BBC.

Why This Game Matters

Group F contains the Netherlands and Japan alongside Sweden and Tunisia, meaning neither of these two sides can afford to gift points to the other. Sweden qualified via a dramatic play-off route and know they must hit the ground running, while Tunisia, unbeaten through CAF qualifying and appearing at a third straight World Cup, are finally chasing their first ever knockout-stage finish. A win here could be the difference between progressing and heading home early, making this one of the most loaded group openers on the fixture list.

Our Pick

Sweden to win at 10/11 is the headline call here, backed by the firepower of Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak against a Tunisia side that has looked shaky in recent warm-up matches. At odds close to evens, Sweden’s attacking quality and renewed momentum under Graham Potter make this a price worth taking.

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Sweden vs Tunisia: Preview, Picks & Betting Odds

Sweden come into this tournament on the back of a remarkable revival. After finishing bottom of their UEFA qualifying group, they leveraged their Nations League standing to reach the play-offs, then beat Ukraine 3-1 and Poland 3-2 in back-to-back knockout games to secure their place in the finals. That play-off run, complete with a late winner from Gyokeres against Poland, has given the squad genuine momentum and belief. Graham Potter’s appointment brought tactical structure and a calmer build-up identity, which Sweden will need in the heat and altitude of Monterrey.

Tunisia are no pushovers, arriving with a flawless CAF qualifying record of six wins from six, scoring 16 goals and conceding none. That defensive discipline is their most marketable asset. However, their recent form has raised questions. After the Africa Cup of Nations 2025 round-of-16 exit, warm-up results included a narrow 1-0 win over Haiti, a goalless draw with Canada, and then defeats to Austria and Belgium, the latter by a sobering 5-0 scoreline. The gulf between keeping clean sheets against CAF opposition and standing firm against European quality is a real concern heading into this fixture.

The game will likely be won in the spaces behind Tunisia’s wing-backs, where Isak and Gyokeres can run in behind. Potter’s 3-4-2-1 shape, which often shifts to a 3-5-2 in possession, should generate wide overloads that stretch Tunisia’s compact mid-block. If Sweden can get their high-pressing game working early, they have the tools to win this comfortably.

Recent Form & Trends

Sweden – Last 5 Matches

– Poland (H): Won 3-2 (World Cup Qualification) – Ukraine (N): Won 3-1 (World Cup Qualification) – Slovenia (H): Drew 1-1 (World Cup Qualification) – Switzerland (A): Lost 1-4 (World Cup Qualification) – Kosovo (H): Lost 0-1 (World Cup Qualification)

Sweden’s last-five record reads two wins, one draw and two defeats, but context matters enormously. The two wins came in high-stakes play-off matches against European sides, while the defeats were part of a difficult qualifying group campaign. Potter has clearly raised the level since taking charge, and back-to-back knockout victories over Ukraine and Poland suggest Sweden are a different proposition now compared to their mid-qualifying slump.

Tunisia – Last 5 Matches

– Canada (A): Drew 0-0 (Friendly) – Haiti (N): Won 1-0 (Friendly) – Mali (N): Drew 1-1 (Africa Cup of Nations) – Tanzania (N): Drew 1-1 (Africa Cup of Nations) – Nigeria (N): Lost 2-3 (Africa Cup of Nations)

Tunisia’s five-match sequence tells a story of a side that grinds results but struggles to dominate. Their CAF qualifying clean-sheet record is impressive, yet in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025 they twice dropped points from winning positions and were knocked out on penalties by Mali. The 5-0 friendly loss to Belgium in their World Cup build-up is a significant red flag when assessing how they might cope against a Sweden side carrying genuine European-level attacking talent.

Sweden vs Tunisia History & Head to Head Trends

These two nations have met four times, all in friendly fixtures stretching back to 1976. Sweden have the better of the record, winning twice, with Tunisia recording one victory and one draw. The most recent meeting came in February 2003 when Tunisia won 1-0 on home soil, while Sweden’s two wins came in 1999 and 1992, both played in Tunisia.

All four encounters have been low-scoring, with only one match producing more than two goals across the entire head-to-head history. That pattern of tight, competitive games is worth noting, though neither side has faced the other in a competitive fixture, meaning the head-to-head record is limited in what it can tell us about a crunch World Cup group game. What it does confirm is that Tunisia are capable of making life difficult for Sweden and should not be dismissed lightly.

Injuries, Suspensions & Roster News

Sweden head into the tournament with Alexander Isak available despite a difficult club season following his high-profile move to Liverpool, where injury disrupted his campaign. He has still been among Sweden’s main goal-getters at international level and is expected to feature prominently under Potter. Viktor Gyokeres arrives in strong form after his play-off heroics, with his late winner against Poland cementing his status as Sweden’s talisman heading into the group stage.

In defence, Victor Lindelof brings Champions League and Europa League pedigree from Aston Villa and is expected to marshal the backline in Potter’s preferred back three. The squad includes Daniel Svensson of Borussia Dortmund and Isak Hien of Atalanta as further defensive options, offering genuine European depth. Sweden’s midfield options are less star-studded but Mattias Svanberg and Jesper Karlstrom provide the work rate and discipline Potter demands in the engine room.

Tunisia’s captain and midfield anchor Ellyes Skhiri (Eintracht Frankfurt, 83 caps) is fully available and expected to start. Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley) is fit and likely to play an advanced midfield role. Anis Ben Slimane (Norwich City) has returned to the squad after injury problems in 2025, which broadens head coach Sabri Lamouchi’s options considerably. There are no reported suspensions on either side ahead of this Group F opener.

Expected Lineups

Sweden (3-4-2-1): Viktor Johansson; Gustaf Lagerbielke, Isak Hien, Victor Lindelof (c); Gabriel Gudmundsson, Mattias Svanberg, Jesper Karlstrom, Hjalmar Ekdal; Alexander Isak, Anthony Elanga; Viktor Gyokeres.

Predicted XI – squads to be confirmed.

Tunisia (3-5-2): Aymen Dahmen; Montassar Talbi, Dylan Bronn, Ali Abdi; Yan Valery, Ellyes Skhiri (c), Hannibal Mejbri, Anis Ben Slimane, Moutaz Neffati; Elias Achouri, Elias Saad.

Predicted XI – squads to be confirmed.

Key Matchup to Watch

The duel between Viktor Gyokeres and Tunisia’s back three is the contest that shapes this game. Gyokeres arrives having scored 13 goals in Sweden’s recent competitive matches, including decisive play-off strikes against both Ukraine and Poland. He bullies defenders with his physicality, presses relentlessly and punishes any hesitation on the ball. Tunisia’s centre-backs, led by Montassar Talbi (64 caps) and Dylan Bronn (52 caps), are experienced and organised at the back, but their warm-up defeats suggest vulnerability when exposed to high-tempo European pressing. If Gyokeres can drag Tunisia’s defensive line into uncomfortable positions, Isak’s movement off the ball could open up the spaces that ultimately decide the match.

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Sweden to Win – 10/11 Sweden’s attacking firepower, led by a Gyokeres and Isak pairing that combined for 17 international goals, makes them clear favourites here. Tunisia’s 5-0 warm-up defeat to Belgium signals real defensive fragility against top European sides, and Sweden under Potter are a different side from the one that struggled in qualifying. At close to evens, this is a fair price for a side with two genuinely world-class forwards in their ranks.

Over 2 Goals – 4/6 Sweden scored three in each of their last two competitive fixtures, while Tunisia’s Africa Cup of Nations games produced three goals or more in two of their last three outings, including that 3-2 defeat to Nigeria. Both sides carry enough attacking threat that a tight, goalless affair looks unlikely. The over 2.0 line at 4/6 reflects the probability well, and Sweden’s high-pressing approach should generate enough clear chances to push this past two.

Viktor Gyokeres to Score Anytime Gyokeres has been in sensational form for Sweden, netting 13 goals in recent competitive appearances with 2 penalties included. His combination of relentless pressing, aerial presence and penalty-box instinct makes him a constant threat. Tunisia’s centre-backs have not faced a forward of his calibre in competitive fixtures, and his knack for delivering in high-pressure matches, as shown in the Poland and Ukraine play-offs, makes him a strong anytime scorer option.

Sweden to Win & Over 2 Goals – Bet Builder Combining Sweden to win with over 2 goals in the match builds a compelling acca leg based on the evidence available. Sweden’s last two competitive wins both finished 3-2 and 3-1, suggesting they are capable of winning while goals flow at both ends. This combination adds value to a Sweden win stake while requiring the attacking quality that both squads carry on paper.

Betting Odds & Lines

Here are the best available prices for this Group F clash, taken from leading operators at time of writing.

Sweden are clear favourites at 10/11 with the draw a 5/2 shot and Tunisia available at 7/2 with leading operators. The best available price on over 2 goals is 4/6, reflecting the likely attacking intent from both sides in a must-not-lose group opener.

How to Watch & Where to Bet

How to Watch

Sweden vs Tunisia kicks off at 20:00 local time (UTC-6) on Sunday 14 June 2026, which translates to 02:00 BST on Monday 15 June for UK viewers. The match is broadcast live on ITV and BBC in the United Kingdom, with streaming available via ITVX and BBC iPlayer respectively. The venue is the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey (Guadalupe), Mexico.

How to Bet

New to betting on the World Cup 2026? Here is a straightforward step-by-step guide to getting your bets placed in time for kick-off.

Responsible Gambling

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