Title race and relegation odds after Brasileirão matchday 26 🇧🇷 | OneFootball

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·3 October 2025

Title race and relegation odds after Brasileirão matchday 26 🇧🇷

Article image:Title race and relegation odds after Brasileirão matchday 26 🇧🇷

With the 26th round completed, the Brasileirão is starting to narrow down and it’s becoming increasingly clear what the likely fate of each club will be.

The top of the table, for example, promises an intense battle between Flamengo, Palmeiras, and Cruzeiro until the end.

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At the bottom, Juventude, Vitória, and especially Fortaleza and Sport need a MIRACLE in the fight against relegation.

Check out each team’s chances below and comment! The numbers are from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

Title 🏆

  • Flamengo - 45.8% (was 52.8%)
  • Palmeiras - 41% (was 30.4%)
  • Cruzeiro - 12.4% (was 15.1%)
  • Mirassol - 0.48% (was 1.2%)

Other teams have less than 0.2%, such as Botafogo (0.15%) and Bahia (0.14%).

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Libertadores 🌎

  • Flamengo - 99.99% (was 99.98%)
  • Palmeiras - 99.96% (was 99.77%)
  • Cruzeiro - 99.73% (was 99.63%)
  • Mirassol - 83.5% (was 87.9%)
  • Botafogo - 73.7% (was 55.7%)
  • Bahia - 67.5% (was 76.7%)
  • Fluminense - 28.1% (was 31.3%)
  • São Paulo - 28% (was 17.5%)
  • RB Bragantino - 4.1% (was 4.5%)
  • Grêmio - 4% (was 6.4%)

Other teams have less than a 4% chance, such as Atlético-MG (3.7%) and Ceará (2.8%).

Sudamericana 🌎

  • São Paulo - 66.9% (was 68%)
  • Fluminense - 64.4% (was 60%)
  • Grêmio - 62.6% (was 60.3%)
  • RB Bragantino - 62.5% (was 54.8%)
  • Atlético-MG - 53.3% (was 53.2%)
  • Ceará - 51.8% (was 57%)
  • Vasco - 45.7% (was 50.1%)
  • Internacional - 35.4% (was 34.2%)
  • Corinthians - 35.4% (was 36.7%)
  • Santos - 32.9% (was 33.8%)
  • Bahia - 32% (was 22.9%)
  • Botafogo - 26.2% (was 43.2%)
  • Mirassol - 16.4% (was 12%)

Other teams have less than 7%, such as Juventude (6.4%) and Vitória (5.2%).

Relegation 🔻

  • Sport - 97.1% (was 96%)
  • Fortaleza - 83.4% (was 74.4%)
  • Vitória - 67.2% (was 81.7%)
  • Juventude - 66.7% (was 66.6%)
  • Santos - 18.9% (was 18.4%)
  • Internacional - 16.6% (was 17.2%)
  • Corinthians - 16.5% (was 15.3%)
  • Vasco - 10.6% (was 7.5%)
  • Atlético-MG - 8%
  • Ceará - 7.3% (was 4.7%)
  • RB Bragantino - 3.9% (was 5.6%)
  • Grêmio - 3.4% (was 3.7%)

Featured photo: Cris Mattos/ Staff Images Woman/ CBF

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.

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