Value Adder: Bradley Barcola - Liverpool close in on a superstar | OneFootball

Liverpool are closing in on Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint-Germain. Here's how good he really is.

€150m for Bradley Barcola? Liverpool are preparing to spend an awful lot of money on a player who doesn't actually crack Paris Saint-Germain's starting XI.

PSG tend to operate with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on that left flank, not really leaving room for Barcola. And yet, for some reason, they feel he should be one of the most expensive players of all time.

So why is that? And why might Liverpool actually do a deal? They're reportedly closing in on this one, after all, with Fabrizio Romano confirming that they've got the final green light from Barcola on the move.

He's all in, then.

And Liverpool appear to be, too. Reports have claimed the player is so expensive that the Reds barely have the money for him and yet they're still pushing for a deal.

So again, why? Is he actually that good?

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Value Adder: Bradley Barcola

Now, this is a complicated one. PSG are a unique club in that they're so far beyond their domestic league that they don't actually play their best XI all that often.

Kvaratskhelia played just 1483 minutes in Ligue 1 last season, while Ousmane Dembélé played a meagre 1063. They prefer to save them for the UEFA Champions League in a plan that, admittedly, really does work.

It means Barcola plays fairly often in Ligue 1, giving a good measure of just what he can do. Our Value Adder model has him as the no.1 most valuable player at PSG in the league last season, driving 4.71 points all on his own, despite playing a relatively low 1750 minutes.

Now, that doesn't sound like much, admittedly, but it's a significant amount for an individual in a squad. Have 10 players doing that in your squad and you're pushing, by our statistical modelling, around 70 points before you've even filled out your entire squad.

But few players do drive that value. As mentioned, that's the highest figure in PSG's squad (a squad that got 76 points but we projected at 79) and only Dembélé and Désiré Doué beat Barcola per 90.

In Ligue 1, we feel Barcola was the sixth most-valuable player across the entire season. That's significant because the top five all played over 2000 minutes, with the PSG man on 1750. He'd have been comfortably the most valuable with a bit more football.

Take that to the top 5 leagues, then. Barcola was the 8th-most valuable winger and 4th-most valuable on the left. Again, this is despite playing significantly fewer minutes than his rivals.

For context there, Lamine Yamal, the player with the next-fewest minutes in the top eight, played over 500 minutes more than Barcola.

The Frenchman, unsurprisingly, drives most of his value in attack. We believe that adding Barcola to your team is statistically equivalent to adding 10 goals to your squad, based on his minutes and performances last season.

But the real reason Liverpool are willing to spend so much on Barcola is that these numbers are low. Very low. We know this because he outperformed them with more minutes just the season before.

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Our model places Barcola's 24/25 season as an incredible one in which his attacking value was worth around 15 goals to a squad. This was the second-highest number in the top five leagues, behind Raphinha, and the outright best per-90 rate.

Importantly, Barcola still didn't play that much. PSG gave him just shy of 2200 minutes - Raphinha had 2845. He had around 200 fewer minutes than fourth on the list, Luis Diaz.

As for all wingers, that 24/25 campaign from Barcola is still a standout. We believe he had the highest attacking value per 90 of any winger in the top five leagues. And we include Mohamed Salah in that.

Though, with the caveat that Salah was by far the most valuable winger (and outright player) in world football that season, boosted by the fact he played virtually every minute. Total season value is unquestionably more important than per 90.

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But unlike most players who don't play that many minutes, Barcola has simply been left out. Liverpool will look at this kind of value and see potential for an explosion - that this is a player who can play more minutes and has genuine best-in-the-world ability.

If those per 90 numbers can hold up over 2200+ minutes and translate to the Premier League, Liverpool have their Salah replacement. They have their next star player, in fact, and unquestionably have someone worth €150m.