Vasco favoured for Copa Sul-Americana, low relegation risk | OneFootball

Updated projections from websites specializing in football statistics reveal a scenario with few major ambitions, but still with a good possibility of qualifying for an international competition. According to Infobola, UFMG, and Bola de Cristal (O Globo/Extra), Vasco has significant chances of playing in the Copa Sudamericana in 2026 and a reduced risk of relegation, even after a negative streak in the Brazilian Championship.

Scenario according to Infobola

The traditional statistics portal considers Vasco's possibilities in continental competitions to be nil at the moment. The projection shows:

Even without a projection for the Sudamericana, the low risk number in the relegation zone indicates that the club still has a good margin to secure its stay.

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Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama for the Copa do Brasil held at Nilton Santos Stadium on September 11, 2025. Photos: Matheus Lima/Vasco.

UFMG and Bola de Cristal/Globo-Extra project a spot in the Sudamericana

The statistical platforms of the Federal University of Minas Gerais and the newspaper O Globo/Extra present a slightly more detailed and, for Vasco fans, more optimistic scenario:

The numbers indicate that, despite recent fluctuations, Vasco maintains more than a 50% chance of securing a spot in the Copa Sudamericana — a goal that stands out as the most tangible in the final stretch of the championship.

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Photo: Reproduction/Vasco.

Vasco's situation in the Brasileirão

With five consecutive defeats and stuck at 42 points, Vasco is going through a turbulent moment, but the statistics show that the risk of relegation is still considered low. The team's performance in the final rounds will be decisive both to ward off any threat and to confirm a spot in an international competition in 2026.

The probabilities will be updated after each round, following the team's performance in this final stretch of the season.

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This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.