West Ham staring down barrel of relegation and five player exits | OneFootball

I didn’t want to write this article.

Not in August after we lost 2–0 on opening weekend. Not in November after we were thrashed 5–1 by Chelsea. And certainly not now, in January, five points from safety.

But here we are.

The timing feels strange. Writing about relegation the week after beating a London rival in stoppage time is peak West Ham mentality: preparing for the worst even when things look their best.

That Tottenham win brought a renewed sense of pride. The sort that makes relegation feel even more tragic if it does come to pass. Before this week, I’d have happily seen the squad ruthlessly purged and replaced by a new cast of characters, all destined to disappoint.

Instead, I was hit by a wave of sentimentality; this article feels less like an ode to the overrated and more like a plea for survival.

This is not me waving the white flag. I’ll sing the Great Escape theme until relegation is mathematically confirmed. But this is a glimpse of a bleak future: one involving dodgy streaming sites and West Ham v Preston ruining my Saturday morning. Could West Ham really be cast into the ranks of irrelevance just four years after lifting a European trophy?

It feels unnervingly possible. The Opta supercomputer has given the Hammers an 83.5% chance of relegation. That number should worry more than just West Ham fans. Boris Johnson famously inserted a clause into the London Stadium rental agreement that would trigger a tax increase if West Ham were relegated. This does not even factor in the £120million that West Ham will lose if they go down.

Financial problems wouldn’t stop there. David Sullivan, in his esteemed wisdom, included clauses in player contracts that halve wages upon relegation. The damage is immediate: January recruitment becomes almost impossible when players are staring down a 50% pay cut.

It’s clear that the team that took the pitch last week won’t be the one lining up next season. So, it begs the question, who goes down with the ship and who escapes?

When it comes to departures, one name writes itself. There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and Lucas Paquetá leaving West Ham.

Paquetá is a man so desperate to leave that he’s reportedly willing to take a £90k-a-week pay cut to return to Flamengo, with Vinícius Júnior recruited as his personal negotiator. Paquetá, one of the most divisive West Ham players in recent memory, created the winning goal in the Conference League final, yet in recent seasons has often felt like a liability, either with his constant turnovers or his ill temper. If Sullivan receives anything close to £40m, you will find a large number of Hammers fans who would drive him to Heathrow themselves.

Then there’s the unavoidable financial reality that stares us down: West Ham simply won’t be able to retain certain players if relegated…

Edson Álvarez stands out from the pack. A player who offers physicality, leadership and genuine passion, exactly what the team needs, was incomprehensibly loaned out under Graham Potter. A hopeful homecoming seems unlikely due to Championship wages and interest elsewhere, making his exit feel inevitable.

Sangou Magassa and Jean-Clair Todibo are also slowly drifting out of the picture. Both offer pace, quality and technical ability in abundance. These are all attributes that would be priceless in a promotion push. Magassa has already attracted interest, most notably from AC Milan, and while a January move seems unlikely given West Ham’s situation, a summer exit would feel inevitable.

Todibo’s potential departure is even more painful for the Hammers. Just as he’s starting to show why West Ham spent £35m on him, he appears destined for a quick farewell if West Ham drop down. The idea of going from playing at Camp Nou and Allianz Stadium to playing away at Stoke feels more like a fairytale. The Grimms kind. Todibo’s quality will be missed, but hopefully he gives us a clean sheet or two to remember him by.

And then there’s Jarrod Bowen.

Mr West Ham. Immortalised in Prague. His name chanted across Europe and beyond. His departure would hurt more than any other, yet it would also be the one that Hammers’ fans would be most empathetic towards. Although crushing, Bowen cannot play in the Championship; he should be playing for a top-six side, battling his way into the England team, and gaining the recognition he deserves.

Even if he goes, the chants of ‘Bowen’s on Fire’ will echo into eternity.

But we’re not there yet. There is still a little hope. The fat lady is clearing her throat but maybe Todibo or Mangassa can wrestle her to the ground before she sings a note.