West Ham v Leeds: Back Bowen in 18/1 box office bet

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·4 April 2026

West Ham v Leeds: Back Bowen in 18/1 box office bet

Jimmy's backing the draw, goals and cards in West Ham v Leeds

Sunday, 16:30Live on TNT Sports 1

Cup the catalyst for Hammers improved form

Securing their Premier League status for another season will be the priority for both clubs but a game away from Wembley, both West Ham and Leeds will be taking Sunday's FA Cup quarter-final very seriously.

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Domestically, the Hammers sit a point from safety with a significantly worse goal difference than Tottenham, the side above them.

That said, Nuno Espírito Santo's side have improved drastically across the last couple of months and their win in the third round of this competition looks to have been the catalyst.

Heading into the game with QPR, West Ham were seven points from safety in the top flight. They had only won three games all season (Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Burnley) and were without a victory in 10 (D4 L6).

QPR took them to extra time but West Ham got over the line eventually. Including that fixture, West Ham have only lost three of their last 13 (Chelsea, Liverpool and Aston Villa).

It's fair to say as a club they've had some teething issues at the London Stadium but Sunday's hosts are now six unbeaten on their own patch as well.

Farke's tactical switch

Like the hosts, Leeds season started poorly then something changed.

In Sunday's visitors' case, their uptick was down to a couple of things. Partly personnel, partly tactics.

The tactical switch came at half time at the Etihad. Daniel Farke's side were two goals down, he brought off Daniel James (winger) and Wilfried Gnonto (winger) for Dominic Calvert-Lewin (striker) and Jaka Bijol (defender), switching from a back four to a back five.

Leeds scored twice and although they cruelly lost in stoppage time, they've never looked back since then.

Having lost nine of their opening 14 games in all competitions, they've only lost four times since that defeat at Manchester City (W7 D10).

Despite this fine form, Leeds aren't out of the relegation fight yet. They're only four points above their drop and head to Old Trafford next Monday.

The simple answer as too why they aren't safe yet is because of too many draws, which leads nicely to my bets for this clash.

Nip and tuck in the FA Cup

West Ham are priced at 29/20 with the Sportsbook to win in 90 minutes and 20/23 to qualify. Leeds are 7/4 to win in 90 minutes and 9/10 to qualify.

There's very little between them according to the odds and I would be inclined to agree which is why the draw appeals at 3.65 with the Exchange.

Across their 13 game purple patch, West Ham have drawn six games which includes each of their three games in this competition (after 90 minutes).

One of Leeds games in this competition ended all square after 90 minutes, their last two games in the Premier League were stalemates and staggeringly, 11 of their last 20 games in all competitions have been draws.

If you had 2pts on the draw and it clicks, you'd make +5.3pts profit but if you want to be a little bolder (or greedier) you could dutch your stakes across the correct 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines.

The former is 15.00 with the Exchange, 1-1 is 7.6 and the split would be 0.67pts on the bore draw and 1.33pts on 1-1 and if either click it would be a smidge over 8pts profit. Of Leeds 16 draws in all competitions, this method would have paid out on 11 occasions. It would have clicked in eight of the Hammers 11 draws as well.

Back box office Bowen to do it all

Jarrod Bowen tops his sides charts for goals (10), assists (7) and is joint third for cards (5).

Given his ties to the Dyer dynasty, the latter shouldn't come as a surprise, this is personal for him.

Interestingly, all bar one of his cards have come when playing on the right and with Crysencio Summerville expected to miss out on Sunday with a calf niggle, that is where Bowen is expected to start.

At 13/218/1 about him to score and be carded.

The latter leaves the door open for a late goal and an over zealous celebration but it is worth noting, if the circumstances suit, make sure to check the odds of this in-play as you'll get closer to 80/1.