What will decide the Western Conference Semifinals? | OneFootball

By Matthew Doyle

And now, after our customary November international break, we return to the Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs with a look at the Western Conference Semifinals.

In we go:

Vancouver Whitecaps FC (2) vs. LAFC (3)

The big story: A pair of global superstars lead the two hottest teams in the league into the latest installment of what’s been a one-sided rivalry.

This is the third straight postseason meeting between these two teams, who are also semi-frequent Concacaf Champions Cup opponents. And here’s how it’s gone: Since Steve Cherundolo took over as head coach of LAFC in 2022, the Black & Gold have eliminated Whitecaps every time they’ve met in tournament play.

So in a lot of ways, Vancouver should feel like prohibitive underdogs here (even though they're the hosts). LAFC have been the Western Conference’s Big Bad for most of the 2020s, while the ‘Caps have never even made it to the Conference Final.

But 2025, under head coach Jesper Sørensen, has been a landmark year for this club. They smoked some very good teams en route to the Concacaf Champions Cup final; they stayed in the Supporters’ Shield race virtually all year long; and they, before the summer transfer window deadline, made the kind of move for the kind of global star that had never been even rumored for Vancouver.

That star, of course, is Thomas Müller. And since his arrival, the ‘Caps are 9W-1L-3D with a +22 goal differential across all competitions. That one loss came on Decision Day with the ‘Caps playing down a man for almost 80 minutes, and battering poor FC Dallas anyway (Michael Collodi was immense).

They sure don’t look like underdogs.

LAFC are chasing a sixth final appearance in what could be Cherundolo’s final game as head coach. That alone would be enough of a story.

But, of course, it’s much more than that, as this team went out and got their own global superstar before the summer deadline, bringing in South Korean legend Son Heung-Min. He’s catalyzed LAFC’s already-great attack in the same way that Müller has catalyzed Vancouver’s, and the proof is in the numbers: 9W-2L-3D with a +19 goal differential, and a partnership between Son and Denis Bouanga that’s already legendary even if it's barely a dozen games old.

In the past, this matchup was always David vs. Goliath. This time it’s Goliath vs. Goliath smashing the hell out of each other for 90 minutes. Or maybe more.

Vancouver’s tactical plan

The ‘Caps have been the ‘Caps against virtually all comers this year. What that means is they’re a ball-dominant team that wants to dictate where on the field the game is played, and at what tempo. They do that by trying to draw opponents upfield, and to one side of the pitch – then crushing them with a quick switch of play (Sebastian Berhalter is particularly good at this) before running downhill like an avalanche.

They were already A++ at that particular thing. What’s really become even more effective since Müller's arrival – because 1) he’s got exceptional attacking gravity (meaning he draws opposing defenders to him, which opens up space for the other guys), and 2) the dude’s an on-field coach – is Vancouver’s ability to play into and out of the half-spaces, sending runners through the lines and into the most valuable parts of the pitch. As so:

You simply cannot sit back against this team. They’ll pick you apart, going directly through you as easily as they can go around you, even when they’ve got less than their best personnel out there.

That personnel is the big question for Vancouver here: Will Brian White and Tristan Blackmon play? White is, of course, an improved but essentially like-for-like replacement for the guy scoring the goal (Daniel Ríos, one of the league’s best back-up 9s) in the clip above.

Blackmon is the MLS Defender of the Year. His recovery speed in particular would be useful against the Son/Bouanga pairing, but man… things have been going well with the makeshift central defense. Do you really want to have a guy out there trying to knock the rust off in a win-or-go-home situation against Son and Bouanga?

LAFC’s tactical plan

Cherundolo has had to adjust some over the course of the season, so there have been a few iterations of this year’s LAFC. Throughout, though, they’ve been a relatively high-possession team that's much more comfortable using the ball than I think either of the 2023 or 2024 versions were.

Am I going to call that the Mark Delgado Effect? Yes. Yes, I am. He is still the most underrated midfielder in the league.

Delgado (and, to a lesser extent, Timothy Tillman) have been essential in knitting the various pieces together as Cherundolo has had to cycle through different personnel and formations while, at the same time, tweaking the game model. Where he’s landed, since Son’s arrival and the season-ending injury to center back Aaron Long, is on a mid-block 3-4-2-1 (or sometimes a 3-5-2, which I’ve tended to like less) that gives Son and Bouanga space to run in behind.

Son has operated almost exclusively as a hyper-mobile, modern No. 9, and rather than bumping into Bouanga (which was a concern of mine, as they’ve tended to do their best work in the same spots over the years), they’ve established an immediate chemistry where they actually amplify each others’ strengths. Like this:

They’ve basically turned every line-breaking pass (notice it’s Delgado hitting that one) or turnover into a downhill attack. And they're arguably even more devastating when/if you let them switch the field from right to left, with Bouanga receiving the ball in isolation and Son running with him to combine off of.

It’s been irresistible. They absolutely annihilated Austin FC in Round One.

Projected XI: Vancouver

I’m not sure if White will be back, but with Blackmon reportedly going full in training… I think Sørensen risks it. If you’ve got the Defender of the Year out there, you use him, right? Trust him to knock the rust off and get the job done.

The other question involves the status of DP attacker Ryan Gauld, who returned from a lengthy injury in early October and is presumably fully fit at this point, but has yet to play more than 25 minutes in any of his appearances.

I think he continues as a super-sub here. Having Gauld, White and Kenji Cabrera to throw into the mix at the hour mark… that’s the kind of game-changing depth the ‘Caps have never had before.

EDIT: Ríos picked up a calf injury, so youngster Rayan Elloumi could slot right into the XI.

Projected XI: LAFC

Two big questions for LAFC:

Over the years, Cherundolo has erred on the side of conservatism in these types of decisions, though I think that’d be a mistake here. Ordaz’s energy up top draws defenders away from Son and Bouanga, while at the same time pinning opposing fullbacks.

So I’m going to wishcast the 3-4-2-1 here.

San Diego FC (1) vs. Minnesota United FC (4)

The big story: Can San Diego continue their march towards MLS expansion team history, or are the Loons set to play spoiler?

San Diego weren’t supposed to be anywhere near this good. They put together a roster full of kids, some cast-offs, and some no-names from Scandinavia that only the hardest of the hard-core Football Manager sickos had heard of. Yes, Chucky Lozano was on the way, but even if he was Best XI-caliber – and he hasn’t been – it was hard to imagine this team would be anything better than mid-table in the West.

But sporting director Tyler Heaps and head coach Mikey Varas had a vision, and they have the courage of their convictions in both how to play and who to play, and they’ve stuck to both over the course of this season, almost no matter what. And it has paid off with the best debut regular season MLS has ever seen, and has them potentially joining the 2009 Seattle Sounders and 1998 Chicago Fire as the only expansion teams in MLS history to lift a major trophy.

They’re not there yet, of course, but they’ve done nothing to give their fans anything except confidence all season long.

The Loons, like San Diego, probably weren’t supposed to be this good. But like San Diego, they’ve got a sporting director (Khaled El-Ahmad) and a head coach (Eric Ramsay) with a vision. And like San Diego, those guys have had the courage of their convictions all season long.

There have been bumps along the way – a devastating loss in the US Open Cup semifinals being the toughest one from an emotional perspective, and the mid-season sale of star No. 9 Tani Oluwaseyi being the toughest from an on-field perspective – but they've kept on chugging.

I don’t think anyone outside of the Twin Cities has picked them to win MLS Cup presented by Audi on Dec. 6. I don’t think anyone inside the Twin Cities cares. They’re just having a hell of a good time playing spoiler along the way.

San Diego’s tactical plan

Varas put it better than I could back in June, when he sat down with John Muller for an excellent feature in The Guardian:

“The idea is, how can we get the opponent to be attracted to the ball, to start to release and jump forward,” Varas said, “and then how do we recognize that moment and accelerate the play through them, around them or over them, depending on how they jump?”

What he’s talking about is using the ball to bring opponents upfield, then having the courage to play through them. If and when you do that successfully, you suddenly have all that space to attack – space the opponents vacated in search of the ball in the first place.

They’ve been superb at this (obviously; they topped the West for a reason). And while Lozano, when healthy, hasn’t quite been Best XI-caliber, the other winger, Anders Dreyer, has been. In most years, Dreyer's 19g/19a season would have been good enough not just for Best XI and Newcomer of the Year, but for the Landon Donovan MLS MVP award as well.

That is an unreal ball from Jeppe Tverskov.

It all seems like a paradox, right? San Diego are a high-possession team that also spends more time playing in transition than anyone else in the league.

It’s not, though, because they use that possession to create transition moments. It’s the vision they talked about before the season, and to their credit, it’s the vision they’ve executed basically all year long.

Minnesota’s tactical plan

They're the polar opposite of San Diego. Nobody had less of the ball in MLS this year – or ever, maybe? – and nobody tilted the field less. The Loons have made a conscious decision all year long to sacrifice both possession and field position for space to counter into, and it has, by and large, been completely worth it.

But that’s not what makes them unique. What makes them unique is how they're dedicated to turning every possible set piece and throw-in into a box entry. The quants realized long ago that a disproportionate number of goals in this game of ours came via restarts of various shapes and sizes, and the Loons have pursued that bit of mathematical fact to its logical endpoint with their three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust approach to the Beautiful Game.

So yeah, that means a lot of numbers behind the ball, a lot of relying on Michael Boxall to marshal the defense (and huck it into ye olde mixer any time there’s a throw-in in the attacking half), and Dayne St. Clair to do the rest.

I personally think you’re dicing with the devil when you invite good teams to have that much of the ball in the attacking half, but I will admit that Minnesota’s approach has led to both undeniable success as well as some hilarious stat lines this season, including two months ago – the last time these teams met at Snapdragon Stadium:

Set pieces, counterattacks, midfield bombs and St. Clair. It’s been a winning formula so far!

Projected XI: San Diego

Lozano, unfortunately, seemed to pick up another injury on international duty with Mexico this window, which removes any doubt about what the front three of Varas’s 4-3-3 will be. And that, in turn, removes any real doubt about the XI overall.

Projected XI: Minnesota

I think Ramsay’s got more choices to make. Joseph Rosales’ red card eliminates one of them – Anthony Markanich will start at left wingback – but were they really better in Round One against the Sounders with Nicolás Romero on the bench? I honestly don’t think so.

So I think it’ll be the 5-4-1 with most of the starters that we’ve seen for most of the second half of the year.