What will Strand Larsen bring to Crystal Palace? Eagles break transfer record in data-driven gamble | OneFootball

Crystal Palace concluded the biggest deal of deadline day after completing the £48m signing of Jorgen Strand Larsen from Wolves.

The club-record deal for the Norwegian caused some surprise, given Strand Larsen had been lined up as a replacement for Jean-Philippe Mateta. Mateta had been expected to finalise a transfer to AC Milan, but the move collapsed following a medical.

Despite that, Palace proceeded with the transfer of Strand Larsen, and the data indicates why.

At surface level, a club-record £48m deal for a forward with onePremier League goal this season hardly appears astute business.

Strand Larsen has struggled in aWolves side certain to be relegated, with a 17-point gap to safety and just one win all season. Having impressed during his debut campaign at Molineux, Strand Larsen has failed to find the same level in a Wolves team battling now to avoid unwanted records as the Premier League's worst-ever team.

But Strand Larsen, like fellow winter window recruits Brennan Johnson and Evann Guessand, has arrived with a point to prove and tasked with overturning Palace's profligacy this season.

Oliver Glasner's side have scored just 25 goals in their 24Premier League games this season, with only Wolves (15) and Nottingham Forest (24) managing fewer. More concerningly, the Eagles are the biggest expected goals (xG) underperformers in the division - and across Europe's top-five leagues.

According to data byWhoScored, Palace have underperformed their xG by a huge -17.23 this season, having amassed an xG of 41.23 goals - the seventh-highest in the Premier League.

For context, the next highest xG underperformers areWolves with -9.31. It's a staggering jump.

Mateta has been the biggest culprit for wastefulness, not just in a Palace shirt but across the entirePremier League. The Frenchman has underperformed his xG by -4.49 this season, putting him at the top of a dishonourable list, ahead of David Brooks, Bruno Fernandes, and Ollie Watkins.

It's a trend that runs through the squad. Of the 18 players to have registered xG involvement for the South Londoners this season, just two - Daniel Munoz and Chris Richard - have outperformed the metric. That is a huge concern.

So Palace have sought to fix their chance wastage with recruits. Strand Larsen, Johnson, and Guessand have endured troubled campaigns in 2025-26, but it's a trio that combined for 45 goals in all competitions last season.

Strand Larsen outperformed his xG during the 2024-25 campaign. The 25-year-old's 14 league goals came from an xG of 11.68. Only 11 players in thePremier League outperformed the metric to a greater extent. Provide the forward with chances, and he will convert. Johnson (+0.42) and Guessand (+1.22) exceeded xG expectations.

"I'm really excited to come toCrystal Palace," Strand Larsen said this week.

"It's been something I've wanted to do for a long time now. I'm here to bring energy and goals, and to try to do my best for the club."

Palace's winter window business looks like a gamble on first glance, but dig a little deeper, and there is method behind their moves. The challenge now is to get their new signings back to last season's heights.