OneFootball
¡28 June 2026
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¡28 June 2026
With the group stage coming to an end, anticipation for the knockout matchups at the 2026 World Cup is at its peak. To bring scientific clarity to the football debate, Opta Analystâs supercomputer processed the data by simulating the tournament 25,000 times, determining the mathematical probabilities of each national team being crowned world champion.
According to the latest report published on June 28, 2026, France stands as the top favorite to lift the trophy with an 18.7% chance of success. Close behind is the defending champion, Argentina, which holds a 16.3% probability of winning back-to-back titles and leads in confidence to reach the semifinals at nearly 50%.
Behind the leading duo come Spain (13.5%) and England (9.7%), reinforcing European dominance in the supercomputerâs projections.
The modelâs biggest surprise lies in Brazilâs drop, placing fifth with just a 6.5% chance of becoming champion. Meanwhile, Colombia emerges as South Americaâs second strongest side (3.2%), surpassing historic powers such as Germany (4.4%) in the race for the quarterfinals.
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in đŞđ¸ here.
đ¸ David Ramos - 2026 Getty Images







































