Why Chelsea beating Napoli may not guarantee Champions League last 16 place | OneFootball

Blues require a big win to ensure progression

Chelsea head into the final matchday of the Champions League league phase balanced precariously on the edge of the automatic qualification places.

After edging past Pafos last week thanks to Moises Caicedo’s late header, Liam Rosenior’s Blues have climbed to eighth in the table, and, as it stands, will progress straight to the round of 16, avoiding a two-legged play-off in mid-February.

They have 13 points to their name, level with both Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle up the road, and Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, and Atalanta behind. A further five teams are within three points, and could threaten to usurp.

UEFA competitions subscribe to a particular set of tiebreaking criteria should multiple teams finish level on points - which is effectively guaranteed.

Chief among them, though, is goal difference. The Blues are currently boasting a goal difference of just +6, only better than Barcelona and Sporting, who will face Copenhagen and Athletic Club, respectively, on Wednesday evening.

Moises Caicedo’s headed effort helped Chelsea beat Pafos and climb into the Champions League top eight

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Manchester City, who will face Galatasaray, and Atletico Madrid are both looming large in the rear-view mirror, too.

Chelsea will require a free-scoring performance against Napoli to shore up their chances of progression.

For example, should Chelsea beat Napoli by a one-goal margin and both Barcelona and Sporting win by a margin of three or more, the Blues would face the play-off round.

It is not all bad news for the Blues, though. Paris Saint-Germain host Newcastle on Wednesday in a match which pits sixth place against seventh, meaning the Blues stand to move up at least one place in the standings so long as they beat Napoli.

There are a variety of tiebreakers in place should goal difference fail to separate two sides, the number of goals scored or conceded will be used as a tiebreaker, followed by the number of wins and away wins.