Why latest chapter in Man City and Real Madrid rivalry is different to the rest | OneFootball

As time went by, Luis Enrique’s prediction made him sound prophetic. At this stage 12 months ago, he said whoever went through from his last-16 tie would make it to the Champions League final. Paris Saint-Germain had a 1-0 first-leg deficit to Liverpool when he spoke. PSG overturned it, went to the final and won it 5-0.

It is tempting to wonder if Carlo Ancelotti or Pep Guardiola had ever turned forecaster when they met. If so, they would have identified the eventual winner. In 2022, Real Madrid beat Manchester City in the semi-finals and won their 14th European Cup. In 2024, they eliminated them in the last eight and went to take their 15th. In between, City’s 2023 semi-final win propelled them to their maiden Champions League. It may be unfair to other clubs – Liverpool, Inter, Borussia Dortmund among them – to call it a final by another name. In a way, it was.

Last year, City and Real met again, in the knockout play-off round and, for the third time in four years, Guardiola was knocked out. And then so were Real, who squeaked past Atletico Madrid but were eliminated by Arsenal, who in turn went out to PSG.

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Man City and Real Madrid will meet again in Europe (PA Wire)

Now, as City and Real reconvene for the second time already this season, it is similarly hard to anoint the winner the eventual champion. The reward would probably be a quarter-final with Bayern, perhaps a semi-final with PSG or Chelsea or Liverpool. Maybe the stakes are lower. Or maybe Real and City are not the two best teams in Europe now.

Real’s historic success means they still top the Uefa club coefficient, with City fifth. The ClubElo ranking has Guardiola’s side third and Alvaro Arbeloa’s in eighth. Domestic league tables show them second in LaLiga and the Premier League respectively. The Champions League group phase had them ninth and eighth; a late Real goal in Lisbon could have condemned City to the knockout play-off round. Whatever the measure, neither has really looked Europe’s outstanding side this season.

Maybe the games have got smaller, or more frequent, though Real’s website still billed this as “el nuevo classico de Europa”. That was partly based on the volume of a relatively recent rivalry. This is a 17th clash. Only two fixtures have been played more in Europe, Real against Juventus and, most of all, Real against Bayern Munich.

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Kylian Mbappe will miss the latest instalment of this rivalry (AFP via Getty Images)

All of which could suggest that City are the outsiders who have become part of the furniture of the competition. The novelty of this fixture has been replaced by a familiarity. And yet, perhaps, it is not as seismic as it was; in part because the stakes have been reduced.

Arguably, too the cast list is not what it was. This could be billed as Kylian Mbappe versus Erling Haaland, the Champions League’s top scorer this season against the forward who averages a goal a game in the competition. But Mbappe, who did not play when City won at the Bernabeu in December, will miss out again due to injury. Haaland got the winner in Madrid three months ago but only has four goals in his last 17 games.

Or it could be framed as Vinicius Junior against Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d'Or battle. But, while the Brazilian has been brilliant of late, it is hard to put him in the world’s top two players on current form. Rodri is yet to return to his best after his cruciate ligament injury.

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Several of Man City’s best players in recent Champions Leagues are sidelined (AFP/Getty)

The Real ranks do not include Rodrygo, the architect of an astonishing turnaround in 2022 and a regular tormentor of City. There is no Jude Bellingham, who pilfered a winner at the Etihad last season. City will return to the Bernabeu with memories of an epic 3-3 draw, laced with wonderful goals, in 2023 but one of those scorers, Josko Gvardiol, is sidelined and another, Phil Foden, is likely to be on the bench. So, too, will be John Stones, who was majestic then.

It shows these sides are evolving; that perhaps they have less stardust. Maybe great players have been replaced by good, though newcomers may be emerging as characters in this long-running drama. For Nico O’Reilly, a goal at the Bernabeu last year felt like proof of his substance as a player.

For Real’s below-strength side, there is the question if they are underdogs. “We’re Real Madrid, we shouldn’t feel inferior to anybody,” countered Arbeloa. Yet a glimpse at their respective managerial CVs suggests Arbeloa is inferior to Guardiola. Nevertheless, his status as a Jose Mourinho disciple, a Real player when their rivalry with Guardiola’s Barcelona was at its most toxic, adds an extra element.

A decade ago, Arbeloa was in the Real squad when a former player, and the manager of Real Madrid Castilla, was put in charge of the first team mid-season. Then Zinedine Zidane went on to win the Champions League after eliminating City along the way. Yet while this is a game that can produce European champions, it is far from certain that run continues this season.