World Cup 2026: Italy in pot four, risk of group of death | OneFootball

The draw for the 2026 World Cup groups will already outline the potential scenario for Italy this evening, as they will learn their placement in the bracket should they qualify through the March playoffs.

2026 World Cup, Italy in the fourth pot: all possible opponents and the risk of a tough group

Placed in the fourth pot, the national team led by Gennaro Gattuso already knows they could face top-tier opponents, with a real possibility of ending up in an extremely competitive group.

Italy's path: the "UEFA Playoff A" hurdle

Italy starts from the spot marked with the letter "X," reserved for the winner of UEFA Playoff A. Only by overcoming the mini-tournament in March can the Azzurri secure one of the remaining spots for the final phase, which will take place in the United States, Mexico, and Canada from June 11 to July 19, 2026.

The new format features 48 teams divided into 12 groups of four, with the three host nations already placed as top seeds in Groups A, B, and D. The remaining positions in pot 1 will be occupied by the other nine national teams best ranked in the FIFA standings.

How the draw works: constraints and criteria

The draw regulations impose several limitations to avoid overly unbalanced groups:

prohibition of having more than one team from the same confederation per group, except for UEFA, which, being represented by 16 national teams, can have up to two per group;

Spain, Argentina, France, and England, currently the top four in the world rankings, have been positioned so they cannot meet before the semifinals.

Italy's possible opponents: a high-difficulty puzzle

Starting from the fourth pot drastically increases the possibility of a prohibitive group. Below is the analysis of potential matchups.

Pot 1: between giants and possible matchups

The greatest threat comes from the football superpowers: Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal represent the most complex scenario. The "softer" opponents, on paper, are the three hosts: United States, Canada, Mexico.

Pot 2: high risks here as well

Italy could face national teams with great international experience, such as Croatia, Morocco, Switzerland, Uruguay, Colombia, Senegal. More manageable: Austria, Australia, South Korea, Iran.

Pot 3: the Norway unknown and other obstacles

The biggest danger is Norway, which has driven the Azzurri to the playoffs. Scotland and Algeria should not be underestimated. Much more manageable on paper: Panama, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa.

The four complete pots of the draw

Pot 1: United States, Canada, Mexico, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany.

Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran, South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, Australia.

Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa.

Pot 4: Jordan, Cape Verde, Ghana, Curaçao, Haiti, New Zealand, UEFA Playoff A (Italy), UEFA Playoff B, UEFA Playoff C, UEFA Playoff D, FIFA Playoff 1, FIFA Playoff 2.

A scenario that can become complex

If Italy qualifies, they could immediately face two high-level rivals, increasing the difficulty of the path to the knockout stage. A potential combination with a top team from pot 1 and an in-form national team from pot 2 would make an impeccable performance mandatory from the start.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.