Liverpool now 90% likely for Champions League after Chelsea loss | OneFootball

It felt like a big week in the race for the Premier League top five, and the numbers now show just how much it swung in our favour.

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After our dramatic win over Everton on Sunday and Chelsea collapsing against Brighton last night, Liverpool have taken a huge step towards securing Champions League football.

Opta update shows Liverpool in commanding position

According to Opta Analyst, our chances of finishing in the top five have now climbed significantly.

“Arsenal 100%, Man City 100%, Man Utd 98.66%, Aston Villa 98.33%, Liverpool 90.25%, Brighton 5.97%, Bournemouth 2.33%, Brentford 1.93%, Chelsea 1.45%”

That figure of 90.25% represents a noticeable jump from the 89.2% projection after the derby, showing how much impact Chelsea’s defeat has had on the wider picture.

It’s also telling that the London side now sit at just 1.45%, effectively falling out of the race entirely after their fifth consecutive league loss without scoring.

Why this week changed everything

The swing isn’t just about the data, it’s about the context around it.

Chelsea’s heavy defeat to Brighton, combined with our last-gasp winner at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, has created a gap that now looks incredibly difficult to close with only five games remaining.

Before facing Everton, the situation was still delicate, with projections suggesting we needed at least a strong run-in to be certain of qualification.

Now, we’re in a position where the margin for error is far greater, and that changes the pressure heading into the final stretch.

That’s crucial when you consider what’s at stake financially as well, with this season’s Champions League campaign already generating around £95 million in prize money alone.

From a footballing perspective, the importance is just as clear.

Qualifying ensures we remain competitive at the top level and continue attracting the calibre of players needed to push forward under Arne Slot.

Given how the season has unfolded, it hasn’t always been convincing and there have been moments where we’ve looked vulnerable.

But results like the derby win, combined with rivals slipping up at exactly the right time, have put us firmly in control of our own destiny.