What do Scotland need from tonight’s World Cup fixtures to reach round of 32? | OneFootball

Ollie Whitmore, Chief football news reporter

Standings provided bySofascore

Remember when Scotland’s chances of making the round of 32 at the World Cup plummeted from 42% to just over 5% in the space of 24 hours? Their odds are now significantly worse.

The Tartan Army have been given a mere 0.07% chance of making it out of Group C after suffering a damaging 3-0 defeat to Brazil, following up a narrow 1-0 loss to Morocco and win against Haiti by the same margin.

Scotland currently sit 10th in the World Cup’s ranking of the 12 third-placed teams, and need some serious favours if they are to climb at least two places before the knockouts begin on June 28th.

What’s gone wrong for them so far?

Aside from the defeat to Brazil that was entirely in their own hands, it was a mixed bag in terms of the results that they needed to play out in a certain way. As of yesterday, Scotland needed any four of the following scenarios to happen:

Just as Scotland needed them to, Uruguay lost 1-0 to Spain in Group H and became the first big country to crash out of the World Cup earlier than predicted, and Iraq didn’t beat Senegal.

But the inverse result didn’t help them either, as the African Cup of Nations runners-up ran riot against 10-man Iraq to rise to fifth in the third-placed teams ranking to bump Steve Clark’s side down a position.

Their situation grew considerably more dire when Egypt and Iran played out a 1-1 draw, meaning that only half of the first four scenarios ended up how Scotland needed them to be.

What must happen tonight?

Starting with Group L, Scotland need Ghana to dominate Croatia and win by at least three goals. The Black Stars made the conscious decision to go defensive and hold England to a draw, but took 96 minutes to score against Panama.

Algeria are the other side third-placed side with a better record than Scotland, and must concede at least two and lose to a team that recorded their first World Cup victory since 1990 in their opening match against Jordan.

The debutants represented the perfect opportunity to do that, whereas Algeria are a far more dangerous side and will look to leapfrog Austria in Group J and guarantee their place in the round of 32.

If they are to finish second, they must defeat Austria by at least four goals if it is to benefit Scotland.

Then, DR Congo must not make it to the knockouts for the first time in their history if Scotland are to achieve the same feat.

Standing in the African side’s way is one of the weakest nations at the World Cup this year, both on paper and in terms of results. Uzbekistan lost 3-1 to Colombia in their opening game and were then swept aside 5-0 by Portugal.

Though it is poised to be much closer than their previous two group games, they are already out of the tournament and DR Congo, much like Scotland, have history on the line. Unlike Scotland, it is entirely in their own hands.

When you appreciate all of the above, Scotland’s 0.07% chance of making it through to the knockouts in their first World Cup for 28 years starts to make more and more sense.

For more detailed reports, reaction, and analysis of the World Cup as it happens, head to our website and favourite our page on OneFootball.