Cercle Brugge set for another bottom four finish just two years after European qualification | OneFootball

Cercle Brugge, just two seasons after a historic qualification for European football, are set to battle it out in the relegation play downs for the second season in a row. While the side from Brugge are unlikely to be in any real danger of going down due to Dender’s poor season, it is clearly a disappointing return for a side that had looked so good just a few seasons ago. A 3-1 home defeat to fellow strugglers RAAL La Louviere condemned Cercle Brugge to another spell in the bottom four, while giving their opponents an outside chance of escaping into play-off two.

Yet, despite their struggles this season, Cercle Brugge and RAAL are the only clubs not to have changed manager this season. Cercle Brugge clearly feel like they needed to avoid kneejerk reactions after getting rid of the popular Miron Muslic last season. Onur Cinel had been brought in to ensure continuity of style from the days of Carlos Avina as Sporting Director and Muslic as head coach. In fairness to Cinel, he has been working with an inexperienced defence this season and it has shown at times. Furthermore, the side have really struggled for an out and out goal scorer despite creating plenty of chances.

If look at the numbers during that successful season under Muslic compared to this year with Cincel, they paint a clear picture of what has gone wrong. That season, the side had the fifth best defence with just 1.2 goals conceded per match, while they averaged 1.4 goals for per match, the eighth best in Belgium. They kept 12 clean sheets with Warleson in goal, again fifth best total league wide. The side never needed the ball much, with just 44.1%, putting them 14th in the league. They finished the season with an xG of 64.2, again number five in the league.

Under Muslic that season, the side thrived on winning the ball high and playing physical football. They had the most interceptions league wide with 11.3 per match, with 6.9 of these won in the final third, the best in the league. They averaged 20.8 tackles per match, second only to Union St Gilloise. This high pressing football also saw them average the most fouls per match with 13.2, but the benefit certainly outweighed the cost.

After struggling to balance European and domestic football last season, the hope had been that under Cinel, Cercle Brugge could return to the style and success Muslic and co had delivered. In fairness to Cinel, Muslic had a more talented side, so that should certainly be taken into account when comparing the two. Cercle are averaging 1.2 goals per match, so not far off what Muslic had been able to conjure up, but at the other end they are shipping 1.6 per game, the 14th worst defence out of 16 teams. They have kept seven clean sheets, but the possession numbers are similar, if not higher under Cinel with 47.6% on average. This could also suggest that teams are willing to allow Cercle Brugge to have more of the ball as they struggle to break teams down and finish chances.

Finishing chances has been their Achilles heel all season. They have an xG of 46.2, the fourth highest in the league. That is higher than Anderlecht, Genk, Gent and KV Mechelen, all top six chasing teams. The only teams above them are city rivals Club Brugge, Union St Gilloise and surprise package Sint Truiden. According to Fot Mobs big chances category, the side are at the top with 81, but also top of big chances missed with 58.

Finally, the pressing numbers are good for Cinel, which may suggest why the club are sticking with him. Cercle Brugge lead the league with 12 interceptions per match, while also winning the ball back the most in the final third with a 6.2 average. This style of play appears to be working better away from home, with Cercle Brugge having the sixth best away record. On the other hand, they have won just one of their 15 home games, the second worst home record in the Pro League.

Clearly, the side are somewhat back to the style of play Cercle Brugge played under Muslic, but the poor defending and lack of clinical finishing is costing them dearly. If Cercle Brugge stick with Cinel going into next season, the club will have to get players capable of sticking the ball in the net.

Cercle Brugge fans will clearly be disappointed, after reaching such highs just a few seasons ago, to be languishing at the bottom of the Pro League once again. The side had, in recent years at least, been one that flirted with relegation most years until Muslic and Avina turned things around. Barring a disastrous play offs, they should be set for another season in the Pro League next year despite their struggles. Finding the next Kevin Denkey could really help turn things around for them, as they have never been able to really replace to Togolese striker.

GBeNeFN | Ben Jackson