Is this the end of Bayern’s European power? Inter Milan think so | OneFootball

Inter Milan enters the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals with a lead that, in practice, feels heavier than it looks: a 2-1 win at the Allianz Arena. Now, the scene shifts to San Siro, where Simone Inzaghi’s team will try to turn that lead into a ticket to the semifinals, backed by a crowd that knows exactly what a night like this means.

Sitting pretty at the top of Serie A and having remained unbeaten in their last 12 games, Inter is brimming with confidence. Over the weekend, even after resting some of their big guns like Lautaro, Çalhanoglu, and Barella, they beat Cagliari 3-1 at home, and all are expected to be back to full strength for the game against the Bayern Munich. The coach did what he was supposed to do: defended his key pieces, maintained the rhythm, and extended their home advantage in the process.

FC Bayern Muenchen v FC Internazionale Milano - UEFA Champions League 2024/25 Quarter Final First | Kevin Voigt/GettyImages

Bayern attempts to demonstrate that it still possesses power amidst the mayhem

Meanwhile, Bayern comes under pressure, taped up, and in all honesty, a little cornered. Saturday's derby stalemate against Borussia Dortmund did keep them ahead in the Bundesliga, but it was not a performance that generates any excitement. Kompany is still having to make do as he goes: with Neuer, Musiala, Davies, Upamecano, and others missing, the team head to Milan full of questions rather than answers. And in cup soccer, particularly knockout soccer, that sort of uncertainty has a way of catching up with you. The first-leg starting line-up was already showing Bayern were only trying to hang on. Raphael Guerreiro came higher in a more advanced position, Müller as the backstop with the regulars, Coman and Pavlovic still short of match fitness. Sure, they've got talent, they've got pedigree, but they don't have shape. And when you play into an arena like San Siro obliged to win by two goals, shape isn't forthcoming.

The numbers are in Inter's favor, not Bayern

The numbers tell you who's in the driver's seat. Inter has advanced in 21 of the 23 recent European games where they won the first leg. The recent setback was against Atlético Madrid, in a penalty shootout, having been 1–0 up. Bayern, though, has only come back to continue in one of the last eight knockout matches after losing the first match. Okay, that was to Lazio recently, but come on, this is a completely different class. And here's more: Inter have lost none of their last 14 Champions League matches at home. That's 12 wins and 2 draws. It's a streak with a pulse, one that's starting to occupy rent-free space in the minds of opponents. Bayern felt that weight when they saw their own 22-game home-winning sequence snapped, by Inter, no less, in the first leg. This time, head-to-head superiority won't be enough

FC Bayern München v FC Internazionale Milano - UEFA Champions League 2024/25 Quarter Final First Leg | Alexander Hassenstein/GettyImages

Yes, Bayern's history against Italy is intimidating, especially against Inter. Four successive away wins, none of them lost. But not everything that has happened in the past benefits us today. None of them were won against Kompany's watch and none of them with an injury list this long. The situation now is different. Today's Inter is solid, structured, and full of players who can hold on to a lead. This Bayern version still seems to be fumbling in the dark when it is required to react.