Southampton Take On Swansea: What To Expect From Both Sides? | OneFootball

Returning from the international break, Southampton will be looking to extend their three-match unbeaten streak this Saturday, as they take on middle-of-the-park Swansea, who sit five places above the Saints in the table. Both sides picked up midweek wins before the two-week hiatus but stumbled in their weekend outings — so which team will find their rhythm first on return?

Current Form

After a surprise 3-1 loss to Hull City, Will Still’s Saints have shown considerable improvements. A draw against, at the time, league leaders Middlesbrough was a deserved point, following it up with a crucial away win against Sheffield United. Striker Ross Stewart had bagged both of the goals in that midweek victory, and after Southampton took the lead against Derby a couple of days later, he came off, with his injury-forced departure leading to the Saints looking toothless up top. Not long after, they conceded an equaliser and drew 1-1.

With three wins, draws, and losses, Swansea have a comfortable platform to build on, with limited worries of relegation thus far. One win in their previous five shows inconsistency, though, but two draws (both at home) have further reinforced this, as they were leading in both — a situation very similar to the Saints, who currently struggle to shore up the defence when winning.

Why Must Southampton Change Their Structure?

Will Still hasn’t been shy about making changes during his tenure as Saints manager. From benching Southampton’s most expensive player in the squad, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, to switching goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu for 35-year-old Alex McCarthy. With Ross Stewart’s long-term injury, the Belgian-born head coach may have to revert to a back four to get the most out of the strikers he has at his disposal.

These options include Cameron Archer and Adam Armstrong – strikers who benefit from playing off the shoulder instead of acting as target forwards due to their minimal height and physicality. Reintroducing the 4-back structure allows for a third, creative-minded option in the midfield, who can play the role of threading these in-behind passes to the striker. Summer signing Finn Azaz has yet to show his end product, but the midfielder has already created nine chances this season, showcasing the possibility for huge output if he’s given more opportunities.

Currently, the Saints play with three central defenders, which often isolates the number nine. Still felt comfortable with Stewart alone due to his overall presence, linking up and bringing other players into the game with his hold-up play. Young forward Damion Downs was brought in as an alternative to the Scotsman. 6’4″ and only 20 years of age appealed to the Saints’ management, but he hasn’t adapted nearly as fast as he and Will Still would’ve hoped. This has led to the German constantly fluctuating in and out of the squad, leaving no physical profiles as viable options at the moment.

While defensive security will be sacrificed, making the structural change to a four-back is a necessary risk if Southampton are to improve their attacking output and mount a serious promotion push this season.

Will Swansea Pose a Unique Threat?

The Saints have faced sides, bar Ipswich and Middlesbrough, who are willing to lose the possession battle to capitalise on the transition. The Welsh side, however, ranks fourth in the league for highest average possession per 90, below only the recently relegated sides (Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton). While it’s highly likely they’ll sacrifice some ball retention, as it’s an away fixture against the possession leaders, Swansea will still aim to impose their build-up play in more efficient ways.

Their style of play hasn’t led to efficient chance creation, though. Sitting 21st for expected goals highly contrasts the Saints, who are 2nd in that metric; however, only one goal separates the two sides in their accumulated goals tally. Marquee striker signing Adam Idah has also scored his first goal for Swansea, in their 3-1 loss to Leicester, and could now see himself getting into contention for the starting lineup.

Manager Alan Sheehan has also shown defensive progress to his Swansea side. Conceding the fifth-lowest xG (8.90) and averaging over 30 clearances per match illustrates a newfound grit at the back — something that has been missing under previous managers. While there hasn’t been major attacking fluidity, their passing ethos has helped in assuring control at the back. They have also shown variety in this, averaging 24 long balls per 90.

Preview

Injuries & Suspensions

Southampton

Swansea

Manager Quotes

Will Still on his aims before the next international break: “We’re just going to work to pick up as many points as we can before the next break. We’ve got a good run of games to come. And we’ve just got to keep believing in it, keep working, correct the things that aren’t working well or well enough.”

Alan Sheehan on this match as the first of seven fixtures in 21 days: “Obviously we want to keep building character, togetherness within the squad because when the games are coming thick and fast, when you have good character and togetherness, some momentum and resilience, thats where a lot of games in the Championship are decided at the moment.”

Predicted Lineups

Southampton (4-2-3-1): McCarthy; Jelert, Stephens, Wood, Manning; Charles, Jander; Fellows, Azaz, Scienza; Armstrong

Swansea (4-4-2): Vigouroux; Key, Cabango, Burgess, Tymon; Pereira, Stamenic, Franco, Eom; Cullen, Vipotnik

Predicted ScorelineSouthampton 3-1 Swansea

Southampton’s potential switch to a back four would allow them to take more attacking risks, and with the quality of players like Armstrong, Fellows, and Azaz, they have shown promise that could finally click fully. While Swansea have been strong on their travels, winning two of their three victories away from home, the Saints could capitalise on transitions this time, and with talisman Armstrong on form, their plethora of talented players for this league makes a 3-1 victory a realistic outcome.