The potential ‘disaster’ which could engulf the 2026 World Cup at any point | OneFootball

When football fans think about the environmental challenges facing the 2026 World Cup, they probably think about the heat.

That’s understandable. The tournament will be played across North America during the height of summer, with concerns about extreme temperatures already shaping discussions around player welfare and supporter safety.

But there is another climate-related threat that may prove even harder to predict: smoke.

Wildfires have become an increasingly common feature of life across large parts of North America, particularly in California. And while flames may be hundreds of miles from the nearest stadium, the smoke they produce can travel vast distances, bringing dangerous air quality with it.

For organisers, players and supporters heading to the biggest World Cup in history, it raises an uncomfortable question: what happens if a major wildfire breaks out during the tournament?

It’s a question that feels increasingly relevant. In the first episode of Route ’26: Losing Sight of Goal, a new five-part docuseries produced with Pledgeball, creator Alex Moneypenny encountered people already living with the consequences.

That sense of inevitability is becoming increasingly common. California experienced an average of around six major wildfires annually in 1994, the last time the USA hosted the World Cup. Last year, that figure stood at approximately 15.6. The area burned has also more than doubled over that period, while some experts now warn that the state has entered an era of “mega-fires”.

Research suggests climate change is playing a significant role. Scientists have found that human-caused warming has significantly increased wildfire activity in California and is likely to continue doing so in the decades ahead.

For football, however, the greatest concern is not necessarily the fires themselves. It is what happens afterwards.

A recent analysis by environmental publication Grist described the World Cup as “one wildfire away from an air quality disaster”. The concern stems from the fact that wildfire smoke can affect regions far beyond the immediate fire zone and can appear rapidly depending on wind conditions.

Smoke contains fine particulate matter known as PM2.5, which can penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream. Exposure has been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular problems, particularly during physical exertion.

For elite footballers expected to perform at maximum intensity, that presents obvious concerns. For supporters spending entire days outdoors travelling between fan zones, transport hubs and stadiums, it also carries obvious dangers.

North American sport already has experience dealing with this reality. During Canada’s record-breaking wildfire season in 2023, smoke spread across huge areas of the continent, disrupting professional sporting events hundreds of miles from the fires themselves.

That possibility becomes particularly relevant given the scale of the 2026 World Cup. The tournament is expected to generate approximately nine million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent emissions, making it the most carbon-intensive World Cup in the competition’s history with almost double the average footprint of tournaments staged between 2010 and 2022. The expansion to 48 teams and the vast distances between host cities are major contributors to that figure.

The emissions generated by a single tournament will not determine whether a wildfire occurs in California next month or next year. But the World Cup arrives at a moment when scientists are increasingly linking rising global temperatures to more severe wildfire conditions across parts of North America. In that context, there is an uncomfortable symbolism to the prospect of football’s largest and most polluting tournament being played against a backdrop of growing wildfire risk.

For supporters, the issue is about what they might experience on the ground. A major smoke event could affect travel plans, outdoor fan festivals and the simple experience of spending hours outside before and after matches. The environmental story of the World Cup is therefore not confined to emissions reports or sustainability targets; it could become the quality of the air supporters breathe.

For many fans, however, these issues can still feel remote. The easiest way to understand the risks may be to look closer to home.

The UK experienced unprecedented urban wildfires during the record-breaking heatwave of 2022, particularly in and around London. Public health experts warned of respiratory and cardiovascular impacts linked to smoke exposure. Earlier research into the Saddleworth Moor fires estimated that smoke-related pollution affected millions of people and may have significantly increased air-pollution-related mortality.

The same forces driving increased wildfire risk in California are expected to increase wildfire danger in Britain. Met Office projections suggest that a two-degree rise in global temperatures could double the number of days with very high fire danger across the UK and significantly lengthen the wildfire season.

Wildfires are therefore not simply a Californian problem. They are increasingly part of a global story that football cannot escape.

Nobody knows whether a major fire will affect the 2026 World Cup. It may not happen at all. But the likelihood is greater than it would have been a generation ago and the potential consequences are significant.

Thirty years ago, wildfire smoke was not something World Cup organisers had to consider when planning a major tournament. Today, it sits alongside extreme heat, flooding and severe weather as part of the risk landscape surrounding elite sport.

The greatest challenge facing football in 2026 may still come from an opposing striker, a controversial refereeing decision or a missed penalty.

But somewhere beyond the stadium walls, another possibility lurks in the background: a wildfire burning hundreds of miles away, sending smoke across the sky and turning air quality into the tournament’s most unpredictable opponent.